Downwards movement has invalidated our hourly wave count and necessitated a reanalysis of recent movement from the low at 72.70. This large correction is likely to be a second wave correction at minute (pink) degree. When this correction is complete we should expect a strong third wave upwards to develop and take price out of the parallel channel containing wave 5 blue downwards. At primary degree we still maintain that we have most likely seen a recent trend change. Primary wave 3 upwards must take price beyond the end of primary wave 1 which is at 87.87. Movement above this point will confirm a trend change at primary degree. Primary wave 3 must move far enough above the end of primary wave 1 to allow room for downwards movement for a fourth wave at primary wave degree which may not move back down into primary wave 1 price territory. This upwards trend for primary wave 3 should last months. In the short term pink wave 2 may not move beyond the start of pink wave 1. This wave count is invalidated with movement below 72.70. This wave count differs from our prior hourly wave count. Pink wave 1 is a simple impulse. Ratios within pink wave 1 are: wave 3 green is 0.19 short of 6.854 the length of green wave 1, and green wave 5 is just 0.04 longer than 2.618 the length of green wave 1. Pink wave 2 is an expanded flat correction. Wave B green is a 135.9% correction of green wave A, and green wave C will reach 1.618 the length of green wave A at 74.69. This is our target for downwards movement to end. Within wave C green there is no adequate fibonacci ratio between orange waves 3 and 1. It is more likely then that orange wave 5 will exhibit a fibonacci ratio to either of 1 or 3, and the most common is equality with wave 1. This would see orange wave 5 at 0.29 in length. The small trend channel drawn about wave C green is not strictly Elliott’s channeling technique, it is wider than such a channel would be and so more conservative. The first trend line is drawn from the low of 1 orange to 3 orange and a parallel copy is placed to touch the highs of 2 purple, 2 aqua and 4 purple. Wave 4 orange may end about the upper edge of this parallel channel and wave 5 orange may end mid way in this channel. When we see a full hourly candlestick above and not touching this channel we shall have our first indication that we may have seen a trend change at pink degree and wave 3 pink would be underway. Movement above 76.07 would give a very strong indication that pink wave 3 is underway as this is the low of wave 1 orange and at that stage upwards movement may not be a fourth wave correction within wave C green and so wave C green would be over. The only alternate possibility for wave 2 pink extending lower is a double flat or double combination correction. This is possible but at this stage seems unlikely as the duration and size of wave 2 pink looks in proportion to wave 1 pink it is correcting.

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