There is a lot happening around the global markets. As the US economy shocked the markets with dismal macro economic numbers on display last week, Tuesday awaits Fed Chief Ben Bernanke’s speech on US economy. Speaking exclusively to CNBC-TV18, Kaushal Jaini, assistant vice president of Dani Commodities says that on the currency front, the dollar at this point in time looks weak, since, “QE2 and QE3 decision is set to happen today.” Further, he sees good moment in the natural gas component than the crude pack. On the precious metals front, he sees serious buying in gold making new records and testing 23100 to 23200 soon. On the other hand, he says, “silver is doing a range bound trading of 53000 on the downside to 56000 on the upper side.” He says precious metals are on a range bound move and doesn’t expect silver to fall very soon. Below is a transcript of Kaushal Jaini’s interview with CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: What do you do with the rupee at this juncture in the currency Futures market? A: If you see the last time when the rupee was at Rs 45.20 in the rupee to the dollar context it was facing serious resistance. After all of the resistance, it is back from those levels and we expect to witness further weakness in the USD, especially, after strong momentum in the euro. The strong euro to the spot dollar at 1.64 is expected to test 1.7 and 1.67 over a period of time. We expect some strength in the dollar due to which we see a reverse moment on the USD. On the Options note, if you see Rs 45.74 there are extreme levels of open interest deviled up on the call side and at Rs 45.10 you have some serious goods happening that would be a trade range between Rs 44.70 on the downside to Rs 45.10 on the upside. It is not about the trading pattern but on a weaker note, we can expect the rupee to test Rs 44.70 and Rs 44.50 over a period of immediate next week and don’t expect Rs 45.20 to be crossed very soon. Obviously, since QE2 and QE3 decision is set to happen today, we don’t see much of strength in the dollar as of now immediately. Q: Would you call it a double whammy as both crude and dollar is falling? A: Crude MCX could see a weakness if it falls below 4400 and currently, it is trading at a major support. The last time on the international WTI containment it did test 97-98 but there was a serious bounce back. On Tuesday, it has been at those levels, hence, if these levels sustain you can see some of them pullback to USD 90-100. We expect some weakness in crude and sell below 4400 is advisable. We can see crude testing at around 4320-4300 odd levels. Investors can wait for a moment but take a position cross below 4400. However, on a broader outlook there seems to be a serious goods moment in the natural gas segment which is under the aspect of the energy component and has broken its previous resistance of USD 4.7 on the international contracts. This resistance has been maintained for the last quarter. Post this breakout you could see some serious good buying happening on the natural gas component which can test really USD 5.10 on the immediate month or so. We would see some good moment in the natural gas component rather than the crude pack. Q: What about precious metals because we have seen some sort of buying in some of them over the last 2 or 3 days? A: There is some good news in the precious metals segment as China passed a notification to launching funds that can invest in ETFs across the world. These ETFs will be e focused on the precious metals especially gold, silver, palladium and platinum. So this is a very good move for the precious metal segment. Gold is having a serious support of 1500 and USD 20 and those supports are not supposed to be broken immediately. On the upper side 15-16 is acting as a serious resistance but we expect that to break and touch around USD 1575 very soon. Therefore, buy on a breakout of Rs 22,800 which is actually a previous stop on the Indian continent. You can see some serious buying in the gold particularly making new records and testing 23100 to 23200 soon. On the other side silver is actually doing a range bound trading of 53000 on the downside to 56000 on the upper side. Therefore, it’s a range bound move on the precious metals. Don’t expect silver to fall very soon rather gain any momentum as of now. Tags: commodities, currency, rupee, dollar, gold, silver, metals, Kaushal Jaini, Dani Commodities

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