FX:Commodities Fundamental: Gold, Oil, Natural Gas
Gold Daily Fundamental Analysis
Gold is always the last man standing and always does not disappoint when the market uncertainties rise and assures that it is still working in line with its fundamentals.
On Thursday the metal turned higher despite the rise seen for the dollar as the metal took the spark as the hedge against uncertainty and inflation with the central bank decisions steady from the RBNZ, the BoE and the ECB.
Gold rallied after Trichet signaled a rate hike in July with the phrase “strong vigilance” and stated that upside risks to inflation prevail, which increased demand on gold as a hedge against inflation.
The metal maintained the appeal as commodities maintained their rise especially crude and agricultural products that fuel direct food prices increases and into headline inflation.
We stated this week that the overall outlook for gold remains to the upside and that the downside move seen was only correctional on Bernanke’s comments as the overall outlook is still bullish on the metal.
Inflation fears are driving the metal and were the most evident on Thursday, we saw the gold rally alongside corn after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected tighter supplies which drove prices to a three year higher and accordingly supported gold.
Food prices feed directly into inflation as energy and the rise in wheat and corn is further upside pressure on global inflation and accordingly gold.
For Friday, there are some inflation figures set for release from Germany, the United Kingdom and the U.S. which might keep the support for gold if more increases are seen, yet the focus will remain on monetary policies and the outlook for the debt crisis with the end of week trading.
Volatility is expected, especially as we saw the euro’s negative reaction to the hike and possibility for the Greek crisis to turn back center stage with Germany’s lower house expected to vote on a resolution as a guideline for the nation’s discussion on Greek second bailout.
We still see chances for more gains for the metal yet end of the week position squaring and the market uncertainty might add to the metal’s volatility and pressure it after Thursday’s heavy movement.
Natural Gas Daily Fundamental Analysis
Natural gas prices fell on Thursday after the EIA reported natural gas inventories rose above expectations last week, where natural gas stockpiles rose by 80 billion cubic feet, compared with expectations of 78 BCF, which sent natural gas prices down from a 10-month high.
Natural gas prices will probably rise back over the upcoming period, since expectations of warmer than average weather conditions will continue to boost speculations of rising demand for power-plant fuel, and that should provide natural gas prices with upside momentum.
Crude Oil Daily Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, as investors and traders remained worried over the outlook of supply after OPEC members failed to reach an agreement to raise output, in addition to the EIA report, which showed crude oil inventories fell last week, which put upward pressure on crude oil prices to rise above $100 a barrel.
Crude oil prices will probably continue to trade within the same limited range, however, the uncertainty surrounding the outlook and the outlook for slowing global growth should keep negative pressure on crude oil prices.
Friday June 10:
At 11:00 GMT, Canada will release the employment report for the month of May, where Canadian employers added 58.3K jobs back in April and expectations show 20.0 thousand jobs were added in May, while unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 7.6%.
At 12:30 GMT, the U.S. will release the import price index for the month of May, where import prices are expected to fall by 0.7% after rising by 2.2% in April, while compared with a year earlier, import prices are expected to rise by 11.2%, compared with the prior rise of 11.1%.