The rupee fell on Monday following the weakness in the euro, Asian currencies and local shares. The weakness in the rupee and strength in the dollar is in keeping with the global factors. Managing director at Vertex Securities, Ashok Mittal says there is nothing on the inflow side that is encouraging. He says, “Rupee depreciation will continue for some more time and therefore, it is better to be on the long side as far as dollar-rupee is concerned.” Below is a transcript of Ashok Mittal’s interview with CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video. Q: Is it a good idea to go ahead and sell the dollar-rupee at these levels? A: Dollar has seen some kind of a bounce back. The dollar index has moved up in the last week. The outlook for rupee may not be very positive because of negativity which we have seen in the Sensex in the last few sessions, as well as fundamentally the numbers which we have seen on IIP has not been encouraging. We should buy dollar-rupee at the current levels and maybe on dips we can expect that dollar-rupee should go 45.20 or higher from those levels. Since we do not have anything on the inflow side that is encouraging, rupee depreciation will continue for some more time. Therefore, it is better to be on the long side as far as dollar-rupee is concerned. Q: Is there any trading strategy as far as crude is concerned? Is there a shorting opportunity here or would that precisely be a time to go long? A: From a trading perspective, crude has show some kind of a weakness in the last few sessions and has not been able to sustain above on the higher levels. However, from a long term perspective I would recommend to buy crude because ultimately, it has to go up. I expect to see some hereabout USD 115 to USD 118 on the sweet crude oil. From long term perspective, there is an opportunity to sell crude oil, but in the near term, you can go short on this. Q: There is an element of volatility in other commodities as well, is there any trading strategy you are recommending on the other commodities like metals or any other commodity? A: Dollar is on the higher side, so whether it is gold, silver or base metals there is an opportunity to go short on those because if dollar bounces back then you will see some kind of weakness. The base metal prices are not showing too much of weakness but if you go to specific commodity, silver is a commodity that is looking weak currently. It has been falling and I expect a good amount of fall happening on silver. If somebody is looking to sell, silver should be the commodity that you can go short on and if you are looking from a long perspective then copper can be bought.

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