BLBG:Dollar’s Advance May Be Short-Lived, Citigroup’s Englander Says: Tom Keene
The dollar’s gains over the past week may be short-lived amid a longer-term decline in the U.S. currency, according to Citigroup Inc.’s Steven Englander.
“There are still too many dollars out there, and the policy structure still favors a weaker dollar, and the policy intent still favors a weaker dollar,” Englander, head of Group- of-10 currency strategy at in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “But we still do have to get through a correction before we move back into the longer-term trend.”
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, had its first weekly gain in a month in the five days ended June 10, advancing 1.4 percent. It traded 0.4 percent lower today in its first loss in four days.
The gauge has lost 5.8 percent this year as the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates in a record-low range of zero to 0.25 percent and traders have sought higher-yielding assets.
The U.S. currency had its first five-day increase in a month against the euro last week, rising 2 percent, its biggest jump since May 6. The dollar fell 0.5 percent today against the shared currency to $1.4415 before a report tomorrow forecast to show U.S. retail sales declined in May.
Traders are still betting against the dollar as net bets the currency will fall against the euro, yen, pound, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc rose for a second week and reached 163,309 in the five days ended June 7, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures released June 10 and data compiled by Bloomberg.
“I’m more bullish-dollar and bearish-euro than I have been in the near-term,” Englander said. “We have to get through the divergences between what we’re seeing in positions which seem to be long risk, economic data which is increasingly negative and pricing which still seems to reflect optimism in the market.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Allison Bennett in New York at abennett23@bloomberg.net; Tom Keene in New York at tkeene@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net