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RTRS:METALS-Copper ends up despite dim economic prospects
 
* Copper holds in face of economic growth concerns
* IMF cuts U.S. growth forecasts
* Nickel price fall overdone - Credit Suisse's Graber
* Coming up: U.S. existing home sales data on Tues.
(Recasts, adds NEW YORK dateline/byline, updates with New York
closing copper price, adds graphic and analyst comments)
By Chris Kelly and Silvia Antonioli
NEW YORK/LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - Copper ended a touch
higher on Friday, as a weak dollar and steadier tone in equities
helped prices withstand the bearish impact of cloudier economic
prospects and a potential Greek default.
The gains helped copper push into the plus column for the
week, its first positive weekly close in three weeks.
But with further evidence of economic malaise in the United
States, worries about the fallout from the European debt crisis
and uncertainties surrounding Chinese buying patterns this year,
copper prices were expected to remain vulnerable to downside
pressure, analysts said.
"The dollar is helping foster some support, but this market is
still pretty much contained in a trading range until we get a
better handle on the Greek crisis and Chinese demand
requirements," said Steve Platt, futures analyst with Archer
Financial Services in Chicago.
"I think we could see another run to the downside. I wouldn't
be surprised if we see $3.90 to $3.95 next week."
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 peaked at
$9,189 a tonne, before ending the day up $30 at $9,095.
In New York, prices failed to maintain their earlier momentum
as equities trimmed their gains late.
The key September COMEX contract HGU1 shed 1.50 cents to
settle at $4.1210 per lb. Ranges continued to narrow over the past
few weeks, keeping prices teetering just above the 200-day moving
average.
(Graphic: link.reuters.com/sax22s )
"It's a classic defined wedge that is getting tighter each
day. You could have a breakout on either side," said Scott Meyers,
senior trading analyst with Pioneer Futures in New York
Prices managed to hold even as data showed U.S. consumer
sentiment worsened this month. A separate report suggested the
pace of the recovery could soon pick up after spinning its wheels
in the first half of the year. [ID:nN17179878]
Taking the unexpected soft patch into account, the
International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. economic
growth, warning Washington and debt-ridden European countries that
they are "playing with fire" unless they take immediate steps to
reduce their budget deficits. [ID:nN17184428]
"From a metals point of view the fact the copper is (holding)
at around $9,000 is positive. It's an indication that this market
may have already priced in this slow-down in activity," Credit
Suisse analyst Stefan Graber said.
A softer dollar against a basket of currencies lent support to
base metals prices. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced
commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.
.DXY
"Economic growth may broadly slow worldwide, but the effect of
uncertainty in the banking system combined with ongoing low
interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar should maintain key
commodity prices, e.g. copper," Fairfax said in a note.
PHYSICAL DEMAND
Reports of increasing physical premiums, a decline in copper
inventories on the LME and a narrowing contango -- a discount for
cash over three-month material -- was indicating a pick up in
demand for physical copper, Graber said. [ID:nL3E7HG0HX]
Copper inventories fell for a fifth straight day, data showed
on Friday, shedding 1,325 tonnes to stand at 470,825 tonnes.
MCU-STOCKS
The copper contango, which generally indicates supply exceeds
demand in the near term, has narrowed from a nine-month high of
$30 in early May to $8.50 a tonne.
Nickel CMNI3 fell to a session trough at $21,525 a tonne,
its lowest since Nov. 23, before recovering to end up $70 at
$21,675.
"Nickel has come under quite some pressure because of upbeat
news on supply from producers and substitution from nickel pig
iron," Graber said.
"The price reaction looks to us a bit overdone as there could
still be some room for disappointment (on supply)."
Metal Prices at 1846 GMT
COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 409.60 -2.15 -0.52 444.70 -7.89
LME Alum 2543.00 -12.00 -0.47 2470.00 2.96
LME Cu 9094.00 29.00 +0.32 9600.00 -5.27
LME Lead 2449.00 -32.00 -1.29 2550.00 -3.96
LME Nickel 21600.00 -5.00 -0.02 24750.00 -12.73
LME Tin 25000.00 95.00 +0.38 26900.00 -7.06
LME Zinc 2188.00 -17.50 -0.79 2454.00 -10.84
SHFE Alu 16925.00 30.00 +0.18 16840.00 0.50
SHFE Cu* 68000.00 170.00 +0.25 71850.00 -5.36
SHFE Zin 17230.00 -65.00 -0.38 19475.00 -11.53
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
(Additional reporting by Sue Thomas; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
Source