BLBG:Euro Weakens as Greece Debates Budget Cuts, Government Confidence Motion
Oil slid for a second day in New York, trading at the lowest in four months, on speculation a weakening global economy and Greece’s debt crisis will lead to lower fuel demand.
Futures fell as much as 1.7 percent today, extending the biggest weekly decline since May 6. European governments failed to agree on releasing a loan payout to spare Greece from default. Japan’s exports in May fell more than economists forecast and a report tomorrow may show U.S. home sales last month shrank to the lowest this year. Oil traded for a second day below its 200-day moving average, a long-term support level.
“The major influence continues to be the European situation,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, who predicted oil will average $113 a barrel in the third quarter. “If you look at what happened to the oil price during the financial crisis you can see that these events have a big impact. There is this tone of a global slowing in the economy.”
Crude for July delivery fell as much as $1.59 to $91.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:28 p.m. Singapore time. That’s the lowest intra-day price since February 22. The contract expires tomorrow. The August future dropped $1.48, or 1.6 percent, to $91.92.
Oil slipped $6.28, or 6.3 percent, to $93.01 last week, the lowest settlement since Feb. 18. Crude is 0.2 percent higher this year.
Brent oil for August delivery dropped $1.33, or 1.2 percent, to $111.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange today. Prices are up 18 percent this year.
Greek Debt
Oil is trading below its 200-day moving average, currently at $92.30 a barrel, and below its lower Bollinger Band at $93.64, a technical indicator that may signal prices have fallen too far.
Euro-area finance ministers pushed Greece to pass laws to cut its deficit and sell state assets. They left open whether the country will get the full 12 billion euros ($17.1 billion) promised for July as part of a bailout package agreed last year, according to Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, after chairing a crisis meeting in his country. Decisions on the next payout and a three-year follow-up package were put off until early next month.
Japan’s exports decreased 10.3 percent from a year earlier after April’s 12.4 percent drop, the Finance Ministry said today. The median estimate of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for an 8.4 percent decline.
Growth Forecast
The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for U.S. growth in 2011, warning of further setbacks to the economic recovery, along with potential contagion from the European debt crisis. The economy will grow 2.5 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012, down from the 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent projected in April, the IMF said June 17.
The Washington-based fund sees the world economy expanding 4.3 percent this year, down from 4.4 percent in April.
The National Association of Realtors may say in a report tomorrow that sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell 5 percent to a 4.8 million annual pace, according to the median forecast of 55 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Hedge funds and other speculators increased wagers on crude rising in the seven days ended June 14, according the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Weekly Commitment of Traders report. Net-long bets climbed by 3,398 futures and options combined, or 1.8 percent, to 194,372. It was the first rise in three weeks.
Oil may decrease this week on signals that economic growth in the U.S. and China will slow, curbing fuel use in the world’s biggest crude-consuming countries, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Eighteen of 38 analysts and traders, or 47 percent, forecast prices will decline through June 24.
Thirteen respondents, or 34 percent, predicted prices will increase and seven estimated there will be little change. Last week, 54 percent of respondents said futures would drop.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net