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The dollar may extend its advance against the Swiss franc and rally to 86.30 centimes should it break above key resistance levels, Commerzbank AG said, citing technical indicators.
“Dollar-franc is correcting higher, following the recent divergence of the daily relative strength index,” Karen Jones, head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis at the bank in London, wrote in a report today. “This is now a triple divergence and it increases the risk of a strong rebound.”
The relative strength index, or RSI, identifies possible turning points in the rise or fall of a security’s price. The RSI rose to 52 today, the most since May 13.
“Rallies will find tough resistance at 85.40/85.54,” Jones wrote. Those levels represent the May 31 high and the May 4 low respectively, she wrote.
The dollar appreciated 0.1 percent to 84.90 as of 10:18 a.m. in London.
“Only a close above here would negate extreme downside pressure, targeting initially 86.12/86.30,” she wrote. Those levels represent the 55-day moving average and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the Feb. 11 high at 97.76 centimes, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance is a level where sell orders may be clustered, and so-called support is where buy orders may be grouped.
To contact the reporter on this story: Keith Jenkins in London at Kjenkins3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Tilles at dtilles@bloomberg.net