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BLBG:Dollar Falls on Concern U.S. Jobless Rate May Keep Fed From Tightening
 
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts on speculation the U.S. jobless rate will remain at a level that deters the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates.
The greenback fell for the seventh time in eight days against the euro as economists said figures this week will show U.S. companies added 100,000 workers in June, less than the 200,000 cited by some analysts as the minimum needed to bring down unemployment. New Zealand’s currency strengthened as gains in Asian stocks boosted demand for higher-yielding assets.
“We’re likely to see the dollar weak until we get the Fed indicating it needs to tighten,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation’s biggest lender. “The fundamentals of interest- rate differentials remain crucial to currency directions.”
The dollar fell to $1.4459 per euro as of 1:09 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.4429 in New York yesterday. The greenback dropped to 80.85 yen from 81.07. The euro, which is shared by 17 nations, was at 116.90 yen from 116.97.
IntercontinentalExchange Inc.’s Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, declined 0.2 percent to 74.486.
Swaps traders are betting the Fed will raise its target rate by 22 basis points over the next 12 months, down from this year’s high of 54 basis points in April, a Credit Suisse AG index showed. Another index forecasts 83 basis points of tightening by the European Central Bank for the same period.
U.S. Employment
U.S. employers hired 100,000 workers last month, after adding 54,000 in May, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department report July 8. The jobless rate held at 9.1 percent, the analysts predicted.
Payroll increases of around 200,000 a month are needed for a sustained decline in the unemployment rate, according to Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Demand for the euro was limited before holders of Greek bonds meet with officials in Paris today to discuss their role in a second rescue for the debt-stricken nation.
European Union leaders are aiming for investors to voluntarily roll over 30 billion euros ($43 billion) of Greek bonds to support official loans by the EU and the International Monetary Fund. Talks between lenders and euro-area officials started last week in Rome under the auspices of the Institute of International Finance, a banking-lobby group.
IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara will chair today’s meeting in Paris, the IIF said in an e-mailed statement.
Euro Uncertainty
“So many stakeholders are involved in Europe’s debt crisis, such as an international entity, a central bank, private financial firms, rating companies and policy makers,” said Daisaku Ueno, president of Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd. in Tokyo, a unit of Japan’s largest online currency broker. “We don’t know who will say what, or when. The euro can’t be on an uptrend.”
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday downgraded Portugal’s government bond rating to junk, cutting the nation’s long-term ratings to Ba2, two levels below investment grade. The reductions stem partly from “the growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official financing before it can return to the private market,” Moody’s said in a statement.
The ECB will probably increase its main refinancing rate to 1.50 percent from 1.25 percent tomorrow, according to all 55 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Australia’s Jobs
New Zealand’s dollar rose to 83.01 U.S. cents from 82.51 yesterday, when it fell as low as 82.34, the least since June 29. The currency gained 0.3 percent to 67.11 yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares gained 0.2 percent today. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of raw materials rose 1.5 percent yesterday.
The Australian dollar rose, ending two days of losses. Employers added 15,000 staff in June, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists before tomorrow’s government report.
“The Aussie seems pretty well supported at the moment and there’s certainly some upside based around the market’s appetite for risk,” said David Greene, a Sydney-based senior corporate currency dealer at Western Union Business Solutions, a global payment services network. “If the jobs release is in line with expectations, the Aussie will be well supported and we may see a slight lift.”
Australia’s dollar rose to $1.0729 from $1.0693. The currency fetched 86.74 yen from 86.69.
To contact the reporters on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net; Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net.
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