Gold Daily Fundamental Analysis
Thursday was not as much of a positive day for gold with slowing haven demand on eased jitters, which stripped the metal of upside support.
On Thursday market jitters eased with the ECB’s decision to suspend the minimum credit-rating threshold on Portuguese government debt which is used as collateral in the refinancing operations as the ECB is confident in their financial program and their commitment to austerity measures, boosted confidence in the market and eased debt woes.
Further support to the sentiment was seen from the upbeat ADP figures that eased jitters for Friday’s jobs figures, which also pressured the metal to maintain a tight trading range.
On Friday, Asian markets are expected to trail the positive sentiment which already was seen on Thursday as they downplayed the chances for China to raise rates again this year which was also negative on Gold. The metal will fluctuate on the back of the jobs report and eased debt woes, if the sentiment remains as positive as it was initially in reaction to the ECB’s decision.
The metal is pressured by the eased jitters and losing grounds even with a weak dollar, which if the jobs figures came also positive tomorrow might further pressure the metal on the positive sentiment and reversing from haven demand, though some upside support will be seen from rising commodity prices and a soft dollar, which is limiting the downside pressure.
Natural Gas Daily Fundamental Analysis
Natural gas prices fell on Thursday after the EIA report for natural gas inventories showed a bigger than expected rise, where natural gas stockpiles increased last week by 95 billion cubic feet, compared with median estimates of 82 BCF, and the prior estimate of 78 BCF, which put strong downside pressure on natural gas prices.
Moderating weather conditions should keep the negative pressure on natural gas prices, since demand for power-plant fuel will ease, and that should pressure natural gas prices to drop.
Crude Oil Daily Fundamental Analysis
Crude oil prices rose on Thursday despite the lower than expected drop in crude oil inventories as reported by the EIA, as better than expected labor data from the United States boosted confidence and led investors to target higher yielding assets, moreover, investors were feeling optimistic over the outlook for economic growth amid signs economic activities could pick up in the second half of this year.
The ADP employment report showed U.S. private employers added 157,000 jobs in June, well above median estimates of 70,000 jobs, while the EIA report showed that crude oil inventories fell last week by 0.9 million barrels, above the expected drop of 2.5 million barrels, and following a drop of 4.4 million barrels in the prior week.
Investors will be eyeing key data from the labor market in the United States, where the U.S. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show U.S. employers added 105,000 jobs in June, and if the Non-farm payrolls show similar strength to that shown in the ADP, we should expect crude oil prices to extend the rise on Friday.
Friday July 08:
Canada’s jobs report will be released at 11:00 GMT, where the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.4% in June, while the net change in employment is expected to show a rise by 15.0 thousand jobs, compared with the prior rise of 22.3 thousand jobs in May.
At 12:30 the jobs report will be the focus for the current state of the labor market. The Nonfarm payrolls are expected at 105,000 following 54,000 and unemployment to hold at 9.1%.
Private payrolls are expected to rise to 125 thousand following 83,000 and manufacturing payrolls to maintain the weakness and rise by 5,000 jobs only.
At 14:00 the wholesale inventories is due for May and expected at 0.6% following 0.8% and at 19:00 GMT consumer credit also for May is expected to slow to $4.0 billion from $6.247 billion.
