IBT: Oil Prices Track S&P 500 with Earnings in Focus, Gold May be Topping
Aggressive selling continues as market-wide risk appetite evaporates, with now familiar headwinds from escalating contagion in the Euro Zone, disappointing US labor market figures and continued dead-lock over raising the US debt ceiling were compounded by yet more evidence that China would step up efforts to cool economic growth following a jump in Money Supply growth and New Loans. S&P 500 stock index futures are down over a full percentage point ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing the WTI contract will continue to follow shares lower.
With that in mind, traders will keep a close eye on the earnings report from Fastenal Co., a global industrial and construction materials supplier. The firm's business arena and global reach make it de-facto sensitive to broad-based economic growth trends and the guidance accompanying the second-quarter results statement may prove to be the next near-term inflection point for overall sentiment.Minutes from June's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting are unlikely to offer anything that has not already found its way into exchange rates following Chairman Ben Bernanke's post-FOMC press conference. Preliminary API inventory figures are also on tap.
Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/2-6/27 selloff, followed by a break through 23.6% Fibonacci extension resistance at 96.38. Near-term support now stands at $94.51, with a break below that targeting $93.00.
Gold Setup Hints Triple Top Taking Shape
Spot Gold (NY Close): 1553.47 // +9.33 // +0.60%
Gold's safety appeal seems to be insufficient to hold up prices ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street as the aggressive rally in the US Dollar pressures the yellow metal. However, it would be premature to make any firm conclusions at the moment considering we've seen this before (as recently as yesterday), with the greenback's direction paramount heading into US trade but giving way to haven-driven flows as New York comes online.
Technically, prices are testing a critical barrier at $1553.42, a level that has capped the metal for the past month and now coincides with support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from late January. A pullback from here would open the door to the possibility of a triple top, a compelling scenario considering the level's extremely close proximity to the midline of a long-term rising channel identified yesterday. With that in mind, confirmation of a reversal is absent, meaning the would-be bearish setup is not actionable at present. If a reversal does materialize, sellers will meet initial support at $1515.70.
Spot Silver (NY Close): $35.81 // -0.91 // -2.47%
Unlike gold, silver seems to be highly sensitive to the surge in the US Dollar, with prices putting in a well-defined bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern and break through support at $35.86. Sellers are now testing the next barrier at $34.91, with a break below that exposing $34.00 and $33.37. The gold/silver ratio continues to show a strong inverse correlation with the S&P 500, signaling the cheaper precious metal is likely to underperform as risk aversion grips the markets.