BLBG:Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Advance as China’s Economic Growth Exceeds Forecasts
The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose after China reported economic growth and industrial output increased more than analysts predicted.
The so-called Aussie also gained for the first time in four days versus the dollar as a rally in Asian shares and commodities supported demand for higher-yielding currencies. The kiwi ended a three-day slide against the yen after a report showed food prices climbed in June, giving the Reserve Bank of New Zealand more reason to raise interest rates this year.
Today’s economic data “does break the recent string towards disappointment from numbers out of China,” said Todd Elmer, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy for Asia ex-Japan at Citigroup Inc. in Singapore. “It could help to ease some of the downward pressure on the Aussie and kiwi.”
Australia’s dollar strengthened to 84.52 yen at 3:23 p.m. in Sydney from 83.98 yen in New York yesterday. It earlier touched 83.18 yen, the weakest since March 25. The currency advanced to $1.0627 from $1.0598.
New Zealand’s currency rose to 65.37 yen from 64.82 yen. It earlier sank to as low as 64.15, its weakest since May 23. The kiwi advanced to 82.20 U.S. cents from 81.81 cents yesterday, when it dropped to 81.11, its lowest since June 29.
China’s gross domestic product expanded 9.5 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The median estimate was for a 9.3 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. Industrial output advanced 15.1 percent in June, the most since May 2010.
Chinese Growth
Australia’s dollar snapped three days of declines versus the yen as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares rose 0.7 percent. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 Raw Materials advanced 1.1 percent yesterday.
“We continue to see key commodity prices continuing to make gains and Asian equity markets being on a slightly better footing today, providing some support in today’s trading,” said John Horner, a currency strategist in Sydney at Deutsche Bank AG.
New Zealand’s dollar rose against all but one of its 16 major counterparts after data showed the nation’s food prices climbed 1.4 percent in June after gaining 0.5 percent the previous month. It was the fastest growth since January.
Wagers among traders indicated the RBNZ will raise benchmark interest rates by 59 basis points over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse AG index. That’s up from 57 basis points yesterday.
Gains in the Aussie were tempered after an industry report showed consumer confidence fell this month.
Business Confidence
Australia’s sentiment index dropped 8.3 percent to 92.8 in July from a month earlier, the lowest since May 2009 and the biggest decline since October 2008, according to a Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne Institute survey of 1,200 consumers taken July 4-9 and released today in Sydney.
Today’s report provides “further justification for the RBA to ‘do nothing’ with monetary policy for several more months,” Roland Randall, senior strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Singapore, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients. The central bank “will wait for actual evidence that the consumer is back in play before it considers increasing interest rates.”
Swaps traders are pricing in a 37-basis-point cut to the central bank’s key rate during the next 12 months, an index based on swaps showed today. As recently as June 15, the gauge signaled 14 basis points of tightening.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at Kaquino1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net