RTRS:METALS-Copper up on growth prospects, risk aversion caps gains
* Rio Tinto mined copper output falls 24 pct on Q2 2010
* Indonesia's PT Timah sees refined tin output fall to 40,000 tonnes in 2011
* COMING UP: U.S. retail sales for June at 1230 GMT
By Melanie Burton
July 14 (Reuters) - Copper rose on Thursday on the London Metal Exchange,
benefiting from prospects of improving global economic growth in the second half
while supply stays constrained, although a flight from risk in broader markets
capped its advance.
Three-month copper on the LME traded at $9,670 a tonne at 1023 GMT,
up from a close of $9,650 a tonne on Wednesday.
The metal, used mainly in power and construction, rallied to $9,789.75 last
week, its highest since early April and within five percent of its all-time
$10,190 peak hit in February.
"The price is already pretty high so as soon as there are any concerns about
Europe or the U.S. then you're going to see pullbacks...(but) you've got a
pretty bullish demand story and a pretty weak supply story. That's all pointing
to higher prices," said analyst Dan Smith of Standard Chartered.
"Growth in Japan is going to be pretty good in the months ahead and China is
pretty strong. Growth is not going to be spectacular in the U.S., but we do
think it will accelerate. Obviously that reduces the risk of QE3," he added.
Data this week that showed still robust economic growth in China, the
world's top consumer of the metal, despite a series of tightening measures, has
eased concerns that stricter monetary policy will severely hit copper
consumption.
China accounted for almost 40 percent of refined copper demand last year.
China's annual gross domestic product growth eased to 9.5 percent in the
second quarter of 2011 from 9.7 percent in the previous quarter, but was still
stronger than market expectations of 9.4 percent.
In wider markets, risk sentiment was hurt after rating agency Moody's
warning that the U.S. economy's top credit ranking may be in danger, capping the
metal's advance.
Moody's said late on Wednesday there was an increased possibility the
statutory U.S. debt limit would not be raised on a timely basis, leading to a
default on U.S. Treasury debt obligations.
The flight from risk on Thursday grew alongside concern about the euro
zone's own problems over delays to policymakers' plans to discuss the region's
deepening debt and after Fitch downgraded Greece deeper into junk territory on
Wednesday.
Earlier, comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that there
could be further stimulus if needed, had weighed on the dollar and aided metals,
said Commerzbank.
"Fed Chairman Bernanke's comment in his testimony before the U.S. House of
Representatives that the U.S. may need further stimulus measures put substantial
pressure on the U.S. dollar yesterday," Commerzbank said in a note.
"The prospect of new liquidity seeking attractive investment alternatives
lent support to commodity prices in general. Metal prices profited from this
trend too," Commerzbank said.
A weaker dollar makes commodities less expensive for holders of other
currencies.
DWINDLING ORE
Global miner Rio Tinto said on Thursday its mined copper
was down 24 percent on the second quarter of 2010, primarily reflecting lower
grades at its 30 percent-owned Escondida mine and wholly-owned Kennecott Utah
Copper division. [ID:Id:nL3E7IE0EZ]
Refined copper production also fell, to 89,900 in the second quarter from
90,600 tonnes in the same quarter last year.
Lower ore grades and strikes at the world's top producers, including Codelco
in Chile and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's continue to dog the
outlook for copper supply growth, added Standard Chartered's Smith.
"There's a lot of problems simmering in the background. It's an old story
but things seem to be getting worse rather than better," he added.
In other metals, zinc , used in galvanizing was at $2,384
from $2,361 on Wednesday's close.
Battery material lead was at $2,713 from $2,701 and
aluminium was at $2,520 from $2,513.
Nickel was at $24,080 from $23,975.
Tin was at $27,300 from $27,400. Adding to support for
prices, Indonesia's Timah, the world's largest integrated tin miner, expects a
slight decline in sales, according to a local newspaper report.
Production and sales of refined tin were forecast to reach 40,000 tonnes in
2011, down slightly from 40,413 tonnes in 2010 due to competition from illegal
miners in the main producing island of Bangka and Belitung.
Metal Prices at 1020 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 439.00 -0.85 -0.19 334.65 31.18
LME Alum 2510.00 -3.00 -0.12 2230.00 12.56
LME Cu 9630.00 -20.00 -0.21 7375.00 30.58
LME Lead 2700.00 -1.00 -0.04 2432.00 11.02
LME Nickel 23975.00 0.00 +0.00 18525.00 29.42
LME Tin 27300.00 -100.00 -0.36 16950.00 61.06
LME Zinc 2360.00 -1.00 -0.04 2560.00 -7.81
SHFE Alu 17390.00 -10.00 -0.06 17160.00 1.34
SHFE Cu* 72120.00 -340.00 -0.47 59900.00 20.40
SHFE Zin 18305.00 -20.00 -0.11 21195.00 -13.64
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07