THE TAKEAWAY – The overall bearish implications of SP 500 positioning remain intact despite today’s bounce, arguing for a forthcoming advance in the safe-haven US Dollar. SP 500 – The longer-term formation of the Head and Shoulders top we initially noticed two weeks ago and have been monitoring since continues play out, with prices consolidating between the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci extension levels at 1299.41 and 1330.61, respectively. Overall positioning remains bearish whilst below 1358.50. A break below current support exposes 1285.46. Alternatively, a near-term push higher targets 1341.24. CRUDE OIL – Prices are forming an ascending triangle chart pattern below resistance at above $99.22, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the early May swing high, mirroring a similar setup that had been carved out from early May through mid-June. The formation is hinting at bearish continuation, with a break through initial support at $95.30 exposing $94.13 and $92.51. GOLD – As we suspected yesterday, gold prices pulled back having put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, taking out the lower boundary of a near-term rising channel. Initial support lines up at 1578.82, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this barrier exposes $1559.56. The channel bottom, now at $1602.45, has been recast as resistance. Longer-term positioning remains broadly bullish. US DOLLAR – Broadly speaking, positioning has been little changed over the past four days, with prices inching along support at the lower boundary of a Triangle consolidation pattern carved out since early May. Initial resistance stands at the 9700 figure, with a breakout higher exposing critical triple top resistance at 9742. A piercing of that level would amount to a meaningful upward trend change. Near-term support stands at 9556.

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