BLBG:Rand Set for Worst Week Since May Versus Dollar Amid Concerns Over Growth
The rand headed for its worst weekly decline since May versus the dollar as signs global growth is stalling sapped investor demand for riskier, emerging-market assets.
The rand weakened as much as 0.8 percent to 7.2903 per dollar, and traded 0.3 percent down at 7.2511 as of 9:40 a.m. in Johannesburg. South Africa’s currency declined 4.7 percent this week, the most since the week ending May 13.
The euro, which pays for 45 percent of South Africa’s exports, dropped against the dollar, yen and Swiss franc after data showed France’s economic growth stalled. A report today may show confidence among U.S. consumers fell to the lowest level in more than two years.
“The rand remains vulnerable to the global growth outlook and sovereign debt fears,” Standard Bank Group Ltd. analysts led by Johannesburg-based Michael Keenan said in a research note. The rand could weaken to 7.38 per dollar today and 7.50 in coming weeks, Standard said.
The likelihood of the rand trading above 7.50 per dollar in the next month was 65 percent, implied volatility from options contracts monitored by Bloomberg showed when the rand traded at 7.27 per dollar.
Traders are at their most bearish on the rand than at any time in the past 14 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The premium of options contracts to sell the rand versus the dollar in the next month over those to buy the rand rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 5.25 percentage points today, the highest since June 2, 2010.
“From a risk play perspective the rand is still vulnerable to the fear and uncertainty inherent in” U.S. and euro-zone markets, Tradition Analytics researchers led by Johannesburg- based Quinten Bertenshaw said in a research note. Tradition sees the rand trading between 7.10 and 7.30 per dollar today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Brand in Cape Town at rbrand9@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net