BLBG:Wheat Drops, Paring Weekly Climb, as U.S. Raises World Production Outlook
Wheat fell in Chicago, paring a third weekly climb, after the U.S. government raised its outlook for global supplies on higher-than-expected production in Europe and Russia.
Global output will come to 672.1 million metric tons in the 2011-12 season, more than the 662.4 million tons estimated last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Stockpiles will be 188.9 million tons, up from 182.2 million tons, it said. Wheat reached a two-week low on Aug. 9 as commodities plunged after the U.S. lost its AAA credit rating.
“The gloomy financial context and large wheat stocks are putting the prices under pressure,” Bourges, France-based farm adviser Offre et Demande Agricole said on its website today. “The harvest is progressing in France thanks to the improvement of weather conditions.”
Wheat for December delivery dropped 3 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $7.30 a bushel by 12:08 p.m. Paris time on the Chicago Board of Trade, cutting this week’s climb to 1 percent. November-delivery milling wheat fell 1.50 euros, or 0.8 percent, to 196 euros ($279) a ton on NYSE Liffe in France’s capital.
The wheat harvest in Russia, which ended an export ban last month, will total 56 million tons, 3 million tons more than estimated last month, the USDA said. The European Union’s crop will reach 133.5 million tons, above the 132.1 million tons forecast last month, it said.
Higher Stockpile Ratio
“The world wheat projections were bearish,” Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report today. The global stocks-to-use ratio of 28 percent is “comfortably” higher than the 2007-08 level of about 20 percent, he said.
Corn for December delivery fell 2.5 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $7.115 a bushel in Chicago after climbing as high as $7.20, the highest price for the most-active contract since June 9.
Global harvests of corn will total 860.5 million tons in the 2011-12 season, 11.9 million tons below last month’s estimate, the USDA said, paring its output forecast for the U.S. by 4.1 percent. Demand is predicted to outpace production by 8.4 million tons, more than the 5.2 million-ton deficit forecast in July, the USDA data showed.
Production in the U.S., which is estimated to grow 38 percent of the world’s corn, will total 12.91 billion bushels (328 million tons), compared with 13.47 billion projected in July, the USDA said. The average prediction of 31 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was for 13.08 billion bushels. Last year’s crop was 12.45 billion bushels. The yield estimate was cut to 153 bushels an acre from 158.7 in July.
“With weather disappointing during both the U.S. planting and growing season, prices will need to rally further to adjust demand down to the lower available supplies,” Damien Courvalin and Allison Nathan, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a report yesterday.
Soybeans for November delivery were unchanged at $13.3175 a bushel.
To contact the reporters on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net; Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net; Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.