CO:Crude oil up over 1.50% on impending US inventory data
MUMBAI (Commodity Online): At the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), Crude Oil has gained over 1.40% as of Wednesday evening ahead of the US inventory data to be released later in the day. Crude prices at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) were meanwhile up by 1.1% as of 1058 GMT.
Crude oil prices are under immense downside pressure after disappointing US growth and sluggishness. An uneventful meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on the Euro-Zone issue has kept the bulls in check. As such, all eyes are currently on the inventory data. Expectations are for a drop of 400,000 barrels, as per analyst forecasts gathered by Dow Jones Newswires
“I see further downside to oil prices as austerity policies, monetary tightening and high prices contribute to slower economic growth,” said Christophe Barret, a London-based analyst at Credit Agricole CIB, reported Bloomberg. In June, Barret had predicted that oil would decline “significantly” this summer. He expects U.S. Crude Oil prices to average $81 a barrel by Q4.
However, Barclays sees a downside protection for oil.
“The big downside protection for oil, relative to most other assets, is that OPEC can cut supply to restore the balance. With so little spare capacity, Saudi Arabia is the world’s sole swing producer, giving it a level of control not seen since the heights of OPEC in the 1970s”, said a Barclays analyst report.
MCX crude August contract is currently trading at 3990 after opening at 3927 on Wednesday morning,
GEOJIT Comtrade view:
MCX/ NCDEX Crude August: Rallies to 4000/4050 to find resistance for a move lower to 3870/3760. A direct rise above 4130 could dent this bearish view.
S1 3900 S2 3760 R1 4050 R2 4130