THE TAKEAWAY – The corrective advance in the S&P 500 over recent days has begun to crumble, marking the beginnings of a move higher in the safe-haven US Dollar. S&P 500 – As we suspected earlier in the week, a bearish Harami candlestick pattern marked a reversal lower after prices filled the 8/5-8/8 gap. Prices are now probing below 23.6% Fibonacci extension support at 1144.58, with a break exposing the 38.2% level at 1105.01. Near-term resistance absent a break lower stands at 1168.98. CRUDE OIL – Prices retraced 50% of the 7/26-8/9 decline, put in a bearish Shooting Star candlestick, and sank to Fibonacci extension support at $79.42. This barrier is reinforced by the lower boundary of a falling channel in place since early May (now at $77.63), with a break below it exposing $76.48 and $73.43. A bounce sees initial resistance at $83.07. GOLD – Prices are probing above the 76.4% Fibonacci extension level at $1856.98 to challenge Andrew’s Pitchfork resistance at $1880.44, with a break above that exposing the 100% extension at $1898.36. Near-term support lines up at $1831.38 as the 61.8% Fib. US DOLLAR – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing above support at 9407, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, and broke above the next layer of resistance at the 61.8% mark (9459). Prices are now stalling having probed above the 50% Fib at 9502, with renewed bullish momentum that clears that boundary exposing 9544. The 61.8% level has been recast as near-term support.

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