New Zealand’s currency may fall toward its lowest in three months against the dollar should it drop below 80 U.S. cents, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte in Singapore, citing trading patterns. The so-called kiwi is likely to decline to its 200-day moving average of 78.68 cents within the next two weeks should it sustain a decline below the “psychological” level of 80 cents, Ng said yesterday. The 20-day moving average, currently at 84.16 cents, is also “steepening to the downside” and suggests the currency will slide, he said. New Zealand’s dollar “will eventually give way to a further drop,” Ng said. “Prices usually trade around the 20- day moving average and it has now turned down. Once the 80 level goes, it should go back to the 200-day moving average.” New Zealand’s dollar traded at 82.29 U.S. cents as of 8:30 a.m. in Sydney from 82.42 cents in New York yesterday. The 78.68 cents level was last seen on May 23, when the currency dropped to as low as 78.59 cents. Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence, or MACD, signal the currency may fall, Ng said. The MACD for the currency was -0.0055 today, below the signal line of -0.0026, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A reading below the signal line indicates the kiwi may weaken. MACD is a gauge of momentum and is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average from the 12- day average. The signal line is a nine-day exponential moving average of the MACD, and provides buy and sell signals. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. To contact the reporter on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net

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