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BLBG:Dollar Advances Amid Speculation Before Bernanke Speech; N.Z. Dollar Drops
 
The dollar gained versus 15 of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation about whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will say this week the central bank is willing to provide more stimulus for the economy.
Currencies of higher-yielding countries including New Zealand and South Africa weakened. Treasuries fell amid bets Bernanke will say in a speech Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed will take steps to spur growth that may include a third round of debt purchases, or quantitative easing. The yen traded at almost a post-World War II high versus the greenback.
“We’ve seen a little bit of a relief for the dollar today,” said John Doyle, a strategist in Washington at the currency-trading firm Tempus Consulting Inc. “No one knows what Bernanke is going to say. If he comes out and doesn’t announce any further easing, there’s a bigger upside for the dollar than downside.”
The dollar rose 0.2 percent to $1.4414 per euro at 5 p.m. in New York, from $1.4442 yesterday. The yen depreciated 0.4 percent to 76.98 per dollar, from 76.66 yesterday, after gaining as much as 0.2 percent earlier. It reached a postwar high of 75.95 on Aug. 19. The Japanese currency fell 0.2 percent to 110.96 per euro, compared with 110.70.
New Zealand’s dollar, nicknamed the kiwi, was among the biggest losers against the greenback. It fell 0.9 percent to 82.84 U.S. cents. South Africa’s rand slid 1.2 percent to 7.2657. The Canadian dollar gained against all of its major peers after data showed a rise in durable-goods orders in the U.S., the nation’s biggest trading partner.
U.S. 30-year bond yields climbed as much as 17 basis points, or 0.15 percentage point, the most since Aug. 11, to touch 3.66 percent, the highest level in a week.
Two-Cent Range
The dollar has traded in a two-cent range against the euro this week, between $1.4347 and $1.45, before Bernanke speaks at the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole. The address will come amid speculation that a slowing U.S. economy and Europe’s debt crisis will hobble global growth.
“People are very reluctant to position into the event Friday,” said Jens Nordvig, a managing director of currency research in New York at Nomura Holdings Inc. “People don’t expect anything earth-shattering to come out of it, but they’re reluctant to commit themselves to new ideas.”
Bernanke told Congress in July the Fed’s options to bolster the economy include increasing the average maturity of its bond portfolio and cutting the interest rate on excess reserves, as well as buying more debt and keeping rates low.
Foreshadowed Purchases
At last year’s Jackson Hole conference, he said the central bank would “do all that it can” to ensure a continuation of the economic recovery and that more debt purchases might be warranted if growth slowed. Two months later, the Fed announced a $600 billion second round of asset buys that ended in June.
The euro rose against the Swiss franc after falling earlier as German business confidence dropped to the lowest level in more than a year. The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, a measure of German business confidence based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to 108.7 in August from 112.9 in the prior month.
The 17-nation currency was up 0.3 percent to 1.1472 per franc after earlier weakening as much as 0.6 percent. The Swiss currency fell 0.5 percent to 79.59 centimes to the dollar.
European Union lawmakers will hear from EU finance chiefs Aug. 29 in Brussels about steps to manage the debt crisis. The European Parliament’s economic committee received confirmation European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet will attend, said Marjory van den Broeke, a spokeswoman for the assembly.
44 Percent Yields
Greek government two-year notes slumped, driving yields up to a euro-era record of 44 percent. The ECB bought Italian and Spanish government bonds today, according to people familiar with the transactions, to hold down borrowing costs and keep the region’s crisis from spreading.
The yen gained earlier after Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced a $100 billion funding program for Japanese business intended to encourage the exchange of “yen-denominated funds to foreign currencies.”
“Measures Japan has put in place are really designed to help companies deal with yen strength, rather than try to turn yen strength around,” said Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy in London at Royal Bank of Canada, the nation’s largest lender. “That significantly reduces the risk of intervention to weaken the yen, and is why the currency is gaining.”
Moody’s Investors Service said it lowered Japan’s sovereign-credit rating one step to Aa3 with a stable outlook, citing “weak” prospects for economic growth that will make it difficult to rein in the world’s largest public debt burden.
Dollar Gains
The dollar advanced over the past week against all but one of nine developed-nation counterparts tracked by Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Currency Indexes, rising 0.61 percent. Sweden’s krona, the top performer, gained 0.58 percent. New Zealand’s dollar lost the most, 0.6 percent.
The greenback dropped earlier today after orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast in July, boosting appetite for higher-yielding assets. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years rose 4 percent, the most in four months, Commerce Department data showed.
Canada’s currency gained less than 0.1 percent to 98.71 cents per U.S. dollar.
The U.S. economy grew from April through June at a 1.1 percent annual pace, slower than initially estimated, economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast before a Commerce Department report Aug. 26.
Mexico’s peso tumbled to the lowest in almost two weeks versus the greenback on concern America’s recovery is faltering. The U.S. purchases about 80 percent of Mexico’s exports. The peso weakened 1.4 percent to 12.4811 per dollar and touched 12.4865, the weakest level since Aug. 11.
To contact the reporter on this story: Catarina Saraiva in New York at asaraiva5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net
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