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RTRS: METALS-Copper sinks as IMF cuts growth forecasts
 
(Adds analyst comment, recasts)
* IMF cuts global growth forecast to 4 pct from 4.3 pct
* Technicals-LME copper to drop more to $8,190/T
* COMING UP: FOMC meeting on spurring U.S. growth on Tuesday, Wednesday
By Marie-Louise Gumuchian and Melanie Burton
LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Copper fell to a new nine-month trough on
Tuesday as concerns the global economic slowdown will crimp demand weighed on
sentiment, compounded by an International Monetary Fund downgrade to global
growth.
Euro zone worries, a string of poor U.S. economic data, and the latest
International Monetary Fund outlook have increasingly tempered expectations for
copper demand.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded at
$8,348 a tonne at 1420 GMT, down by 0.3 percent from Monday's close at $8,364.
It earlier reached a new low since Nov. 30, 2010 at $8,308 a tonne.
"Everything is about Europe - there's more and more nervousness about debt
issues, and the potential downgrade of other European countries," said analyst
David Wilson of Societe Generale.
High debt loads, slowing output and market turmoil imperil economic recovery
in Europe and prompt action by policymakers is essential to prevent the regional
outlook from worsening, the IMF warned in its latest economic outlook on
Tuesday.
It also cut its forecast for global growth to 4.0 percent for this year and
next, shaving projections for almost every region of the world and saying risks
remained tilted to the downside. Just three months ago it had projected an
expansion of 4.3 percent for 2011 and 4.5 percent for 2012. [ID;nW1E7JU006]
The euro fell to a New York session low against the dollar as investors
refocused on concerns about European debt contagion with Italy's debt rating cut
earlier in the global session.
Europe has come under increasing global pressure to resolve a crisis that
has seen numerous ratings downgrades and financial rescues for Greece, Portugal
and Ireland. Analysts said the crisis will have to be addressed by policymakers
starting with the U.S. Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and the G20 and
IMF/World Bank meetings this week.
"U.S. housing starts data today were also worse than expected and that is
not going to help," Wilson added.
U.S. housing starts fell more than expected in August as groundbreaking for
both single-family and multi-family units dropped, suggesting the economy will
not get help from residential construction anytime soon.
Analysts said that traders could be positioning for further signs of an
accommodative monetary policy stance from the U.S. which finishes its rate
meeting on Wednesday, although any impact on metals isn't expected to last.
"Metal prices could... benefit from any further concerted actions on the
part of key central banks, as was the case in the middle of the month,"
Commerzbank said in a note.
"However, given the slowdown of the economic environment, we doubt the
sustainability of a purely liquidity driven price rally."



MINE STRIKES
The appearance of an end to industrial action at two copper projects has
also eroded copper price support, said analysts.
More than a thousand workers returned to Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold's
strike-hit Indonesia mine on Monday, leading the union to say some
production has restarted at the world's third-biggest copper mine.
Workers at Peru's Cerro Verde mine, which yields 2 percent of the world's
copper, agreed to end an indefinite strike they began last week, but may down
tools again on Sept. 27, a union leader said Monday.
"A partial end to a strike at Freeport McMoran's Grasberg copper and gold
mine in Indonesia could also remove some of the support from copper, although
the union said an agreement still has not been met," ANZ said in a note.
"Sentiment has turned mostly bearish for this market."
Lead stocks at LME warehouses, which have been rising since mid-August, hit
their highest in more than 16 years as they jumped 15,250 tonnes to 345,425
tonnes and are now nearing records of 372,650 tonnes from Oct. 1994.
MPB-STOCKS
Although headline LME lead stocks are now close to record highs the absolute
size of the lead market has also grown, with global consumption around 10
million tonnes a year, from around 6.5 million tonnes a year a decade or so ago,
Standard Bank said in a research note.
"As such, in terms of days' consumption, inventories are not quite as
plentiful as the headline numbers suggest."
Battery material lead traded at $2,316 from $2,301 a tonne. Zinc
, used in galvanizing, traded at $2,097 from $2,100 a tonne.
Aluminium changed hands at $2,338 a tonne, from $2,340 a tonne.
Nickel traded at $21,042 a tonne from $21,000 while tin
was seen at $22,799 from $22,710 a tonne. Tin premiums in Europe rose
this week as declining inventories in LME warehouses and strong Chinese demand
caused tightness in the market, traders said, with more gains eyed on
expectations of further robust demand from China.
Metal Prices at 1419 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T
Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2009 Ytd Pct
move
COMEX Cu 375.00 -2.25 -0.60 334.65 12.06
LME Alum 0.00 -2340.00 -100.00 2230.00 -100.00
LME Cu 0.00 -8364.00 -100.00 7375.00 -100.00
LME Lead 2310.00 9.00 +0.39 2432.00 -5.02
LME Nickel 21175.00 175.00 +0.83 18525.00 14.30
LME Tin 23195.00 485.00 +2.14 16950.00 36.84
LME Zinc 2095.00 -5.00 -0.24 2560.00 -18.16
SHFE Alu 17055.00 95.00 +0.56 17160.00 -0.61
SHFE Cu* 62960.00 -410.00 -0.65 59900.00 5.11
SHFE Zin 16380.00 95.00 +0.58 21195.00 -22.72
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
Source