RTRS:FOREX-Dollar soft on Fed expectations, yen near highs
* Dollar near record low versus yen, risks intervention
* Market squares positions ahead of Fed announcement
* 'Operation Twist' expected, lower yields could hit dlr/yen
By Nia Williams
LONDON, Sept 21 (Reuters) - The dollar fell close to a
record low against the yen on Wednesday ahead of a Federal
Reserve policy decision and looked unlikely to pare those losses
as investors waited to see what measures might be taken to
revive the flagging U.S. economy.
The yen's broad rise triggered concerns about fresh
intervention from Japanese authorities and kept many investors
from pushing it much higher.
The dollar was last down 0.15 percent on the day at 76.27
yen , having fallen as low as 76.11 yen on trading
platform EBS, not far from its record trough of 75.94 yen hit in
August. There was talk of large dollar bids between 76.20 yen to
76.00 yen, while downside stop-loss orders were cited at 75.90
yen, just under the dollar's record low.
Analysts said the greenback was unlikely to regain much
ground before the end of the two-day Fed meeting later on
Wednesday. Nonetheless, investors preferred to keep positions
square rather than risk being wrongfooted by the Fed.
Policymakers are widely expected to announce 'Operation
Twist', rebalancing the Fed's $2.8 trillion portfolio of bond
holdings by trying to push down long-term borrowing
costs.
Although such a stimulus move would be less damaging for the
greenback than another round of quantitative easing - which
floods the system with more dollars and expands the Fed's
balance sheet - analysts said both measures suggested the
central bank was running out of options to kickstart the
economy.
"The risk of QE is a burden to the dollar, while Operation
Twist might not be that much of a burden because there will not
be an enlargement of the balance sheet," said Lutz Karpowitz, FX
strategist at Commerzbank.
"But I can hardly see this having a positive impact on the
dollar either. Rates are already at historic lows, that's not
the reason the U.S. economy isn't performing. The market might
get the impression all these measures do not make much sense."
Any move by the Fed to push rates lower is likely to prompt
Japanese investors to cut exposure to U.S. Treasuries, weighing
on the dollar.
In the options market, one-month dollar/yen implied
volatility inched higher to 11 percent and risk
reversals moved out in favour of yen buying. The rise reflected
gains in the spot market although traders said risk of
intervention was likely to cap moves higher.
EURO FALLS VS DOLLAR
The euro and the dollar both rose against the Swiss franc,
on persistent market talk the Swiss National Bank is looking to
lift its euro/Swiss intervention target to 1.25 francs from
1.20. The SNB has declined to comment on the rumours.
The euro climbed 0.5 percent against the Swiss franc to
1.2216 francs .
Against the dollar, the euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.3676
, hurt by a slide in European shares and sentiment still
brittle due to the euro zone debt crisis. Traders said there
were downside stop loss orders at $1.3640 but Middle Eastern
demand was providing support.
Some analysts said talk of a rise in the franc's floor had
prompted investors to buy euros. In the absence of any move from
the SNB, those investors were cutting long euro positions and
contributing to its slide.
"The fact that move did not materialise has curtailed
expectations of increased official demand for euros from the
SNB," said Lena Komileva, head of G10 currencies at Brown
Brothers Harriman.
Barclays Capital slashed their forecast for the euro to
$1.33 in one month and $1.25 in three months given mounting
concerns Greece will default on its debts and increasing
pressure on Italy and Spain's weak fiscal positions.
Sterling hit a 8-month low against the dollar after dovish
Bank of England minutes.
Sterling fell to $1.5613 and a 2-1/2 year low of
119.23 against the yen after the minutes bolstered
expectations of more quantitative easing in the UK.