RTRS: Silver, gold tumble further on dollar, liquidation
By Rujun Shen
SINGAPORE, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Spot gold fell 5.2 percent
and silver dropped by the most in three years, extending
Friday's rout as investors bolted for the ultimate safe havens
of cash and the dollar.
A debt crisis in the euro zone that could infect the global
economy is causing a widespread flight to safety that has
hammered commodity markets across the board.
Spot gold dropped to an 11-week low of $1,534.49 an
ounce before edging back to $1,558.39 by 0706 GMT, bringing
losses so far this month to nearly 15 percent, the biggest
decline since the financial crisis in October 2008.
Spot silver was down 16 percent at one point to a low
of $26.04, its weakest since November last year, before bouncing
back to $27.97, a fall of just under 10 percent. The metal has
lost more than a quarter of its value in just three sessions.
"Many have highlighted the risks of gold being in overbought
territory, having gone up in a straight line in the past four
years," said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist at CIMB
Research in Singapore.
"With recessionary pressure piling up, flight to safety
means flight to really safe investments, and those are the U.S.
dollar and U.S. Treasuries."
Spot gold is approaching key support at the 200-day moving
average of $1,526.58, while the Relative Strength Index dipped
below 30, seen as an indicator that the market is oversold.
U.S. gold futures GCcv1 fell 4.7 percent to $1,563.40 an
ounce, and U.S. silver SIcv1 tumbled as much as 13 percent to
$26.15.
The dollar, which has rallied nearly 6 percent so far this
year against a basket of currencies , touched a
seven-month high as investors fled risky assets to seek a safe
haven in the greenback.
"The dollar still has room to strengthen more in the short
term because the fear of crisis is not over," said Dominic
Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management in
Singapore.
A stronger dollar pressures gold as it becomes more
expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
European policymakers began working on new ways to stop
fallout from Greece's near-bankruptcy from inflicting more
damage on the world economy after stinging criticism for failing
to stem the debt crisis.
But gold's longer-term prospects remain bright, analysts and
traders said, as the reasons supporting high gold prices, such
as low interest rates in most developed economies and high
inflation in the world's top two gold consumers, are still in
place.
"For the longer term, after prices stabilise and life
returns to normal, safe-haven flow will slowly come back. In
2012, there is a chance that gold could reach $2,000 an ounce,"
said Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures.
MARGIN INCREASE; ETF HOLDINGS STEADY
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the CME Group raised margin
requirements on gold, silver and copper futures contracts on
Friday after market volatility rose dramatically in the past few
weeks, raising the cost of holding positions.
Speculators cut bullish bets in gold futures and options for
the sixth time in seven weeks in the week ended Sept. 20, as the
price of bullion continued to unravel from its record.
Spot gold fell 8.6 percent last week, its sharpest such drop
in more than 28 years.
"Retail punters are scared," said a Singapore-based trader.
"There is a big dollar buying frenzy now, which is dragging
everything down and people have to liquidate just like 2008."
In 2008, spot gold prices initially shot up after Lehman
Brothers' bankruptcy, but soon tumbled more than 25 percent
within two weeks in October.
Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded
fund, SPDR Gold Trust , stood unchanged at a one-month high
of 1,252.211 tonnes by Sept. 23.
The world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund,
iShares Silver Trust , also reported its holdings
unchanged, at 9,868.49 tonnes.
If ETF positions unwind, it could put additional pressure on
prices, traders and analysts said.
Prices of other precious metals also tumbled. Spot platinum
dropped to $1,463.99, its lowest since May 2010.
Spot palladium fell to an 11-month low of $600.49.
Precious metals prices 0706 GMT
Metal Last Change Pct chg YTD pct chg Volume
Spot Gold 1558.39 -98.64 -5.95 9.79
Spot Silver 27.97 -3.07 -9.89 -9.36
Spot Platinum 1504.99 -100.29 -6.25 -14.85
Spot Palladium 610.49 -21.04 -3.33 -23.64
TOCOM Gold 3870.00 -509.00 -11.62 3.78 180967
TOCOM Platinum 3708.00 -630.00 -14.52 -21.04 36668
TOCOM Silver 68.90 -27.80 -28.75 -14.94 4183
TOCOM Palladium 1502.00 -195.00 -11.49 -28.37 1603
COMEX GOLD DEC1 1563.40 -76.40 -4.66 9.99 110472
COMEX SILVER DEC1 28.12 -1.98 -6.58 -9.11 27408
Euro/Dollar 1.3416
Dollar/Yen 76.28
TOCOM prices in yen per gram. Spot prices in $ per ounce.
COMEX gold and silver contracts show the most active months
(Additional reporting by Jane Lee in SINGAPORE; Editing by
Michael Urquhart)