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ND: Crude Oil, Gold Corrections of Post-FOMC Losses Still Playing Out
 
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $80.24 // +0.39 // +0.49%
Crude prices are sailing higher along with S&P 500 stock index futures ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street as the upward correction across the spectrum risky assets continues . The newswires are attributing the optimism to rising confidence in the emergence of some sort of a viable action plan to squash the spread of the EU debt crisis, seizing on comments from an anonymous official who told Bloomberg News that the ECB was preparing a range of stimulus options .
Looking ahead, the focus on the Euro Zone fiasco puts the spotlight on Slovenia as the country's Parliament holds a vote on the expanded powers given to the EFSF in late July (so-called "EFSF2") while Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou sits down with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. The former outcome seems likely to produce ratification, as Ljubljana policymakers no doubt appreciate the new EFSF's ability to inject capital directly into ailing banks considering the country was recently downgraded amid fears the government would have to do more to support its lenders. Any comments out of the Papandreou/Merkel meeting will be closely monitored however for signs that the currency bloc is moving closer toward a managed default of the beleaguered country after EFSF2 is empowered to act as a bulwark against contagion.
On the US economic data front, Consumer Confidence figures and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing gauge on tap, with expectations of improvement on both fronts playing into the already chipper mood across financial markets. Prices broke above 38.2% Fibonacci extension resistance at $80.97 yesterday, opening the door for a move to the 23.6% level at $84.61 from here. The 38.2% Fib has been recast as near-term support.
Spot Gold (NY Close): 1 626 . 35 // - 30 . 45 // - 1 . 84 %
As with most assets across the financial markets, gold is in corrective mode as prices retrace last week's post-FOMC volatility. A pronounced Hammer candlestick above support at $1624.09 - the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level - hints a move higher is ahead, with the 38.2% level at $1680.78 lining up as resistance. Interestingly, while speculative net long gold positions dropped to the lowest since May 2009 last week even before the Fed meeting (meaning they likely fell even more dramatically after), gold ETF holdings were relatively flat. This suggests that while relatively more professional investors in the yellow metal have already moved toward the exits, newcomers to the space that often favor ETFs as their vehicle of choice are continue to hold out hope. Provided the macroeconomic landscape remains gold-negative (i.e. a double dip recession doesn't force the Fed to change its mind on QE3 but the recovery remains sluggish so as to contain inflation), this suggests a much larger selloff may be lurking ahead as ETF investors catch up to what futures traders seem to be doing already.
Spot Silver (NY Close): $3 0 . 74 // - 0 . 40 // - 1 . 29 %
As with gold, silver seems to have found an interim bottom, with a dramatic-looking Hammer candlestick above support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($30.14) and deeply oversold RSI studies pointing to a rebound. Initial resistance stands at $32.66, the 38.2% Fib. Unlike the yellow metal, the paths of ETF holdings and net speculative long positions have been largely parallel since the beginning of the year, with both showing preliminary signs of topping. The difference between silver and gold in this sense seems intuitively to rest in the cheaper metal's more speculative nature. Indeed, the mindsets of futures and ETF traders are probably not materially different while the presence of rigid "buy and hold" investors is likely limited in both camps.


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