RTRS: FOREX-Euro down vs dlr on Greece, banking concerns
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The euro slipped on Monday,
hovering within sight of an eight-month low against the dollar
and a decade low versus the yen, as mounting concerns of a Greek
default deepened investor worries about the health of the euro
zone's banking sector.
With Europe still deeply divided over how to tackle the
spiralling debt crisis and the risks that poses for the bigger
euro zone economies and the financial sector, the euro is likely
to stay under pressure, market players said.
The euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.3357 , having
fallen to a low of $1.3313 -- its lowest since mid-January. The
shared currency lost 7 percent in September -- its largest
monthly drop since November 2010. Traders cited talk of option
barriers at $1.3300, $1.3275 and $1.3250.
Against the safe-haven yen, the euro was down 0.4 percent at
102.73 yen , not far from its decade low of 101.95
struck on trading platform EBS late last month.
Concerns about cooling global growth prompted both leveraged
and macro funds to unwind positions funded in the dollar and the
yen. As a result, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar hit a
10-month low at $0.9592 .
"The euro is under pressure because there are too many
unknowns out there. No one knows what is happening in Greece in
light of revised budget expectations and finance ministers are
meeting today but we may have to wait for any concrete news,"
said Tom Levinson, FX strategist at ING.
"Negative stories about the euro zone banking sector feed
further into the risk aversion story."
European shares fell, with banking stocks under fresh
pressure. Moody's put the rating of financial services group
Dexia on review for possible downgrade with the bank
looking stretched by its exposure to Greece, raising pressure on
its state shareholders to consider a second bailout.
French daily Les Echos reported Belgian and French finance
ministers will meet on Monday to discuss ways to shore up the
balance sheet of Dexia, reminding investors of the problems euro
zone banks face due to their exposure to peripheral debt.
Euro zone finance ministers are meeting on Monday and are
expected to put pressure on Greece to implement agreed
structural reforms and discuss options for leveraging the
European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).ID:nL5E7L20LD]
That meeting comes after Greece said it would miss a deficit
target set just months ago.
With the debt crisis showing little sign of abating, the
euro zone's manufacturing contraction deepened in September as
new orders shrank at their fastest pace since June 2009.
U.S. ISM manufacturing data expected later in session is
likely to add to economic growth concerns by highlighting a
gloomy outlook for the world's largest economy.
ING's Levinson said a poor ISM number would be positive for
the dollar in the current risk-off environment and potentially
push the euro below $1.33.
Investors are also awaiting an European Central Bank rate
decision on Thursday. Some market players are expecting it to
cut rates by 25 basis points and announce fresh liquidity
measures to support the banking sector.
EURO SHORT POSITIONS
Speculators have been adding to their bearish bets against
the euro and this trend is likely to continue.
"The market is short euro and rightly so, with fundamental
factors backing it up," said Chris Walker, forex analyst at UBS.
"We could see some short term unwinding, but that will give
investors a better level to sell. We expect investors to
continue building short positions against the euro."
The options market points to a strong appetite for long-term
euro/dollar puts -- bets that the euro will weaken. One-year
risk reversal spreads hit a record high around
4.0 at the end of last week and remain near that level.
The euro's losses saw the dollar index rise to an
eight month high of 79.154. It was last up 0.4 percent at
78.857. Currency speculators increased bets on the U.S. dollar
to their highest since June 2010.
The greenback eased against the yen to 76.85 yen, having hit
a two-week high at 77.27 yen and breaking above its
55-day moving average at 77.17 for the first time since its
spike after intervention on Aug. 4. Stop losses loom around
77.30 yen, while orders are seen around 77.50, traders said.
Tokyo dealers also reported macro funds building dollar long
positions and analysts said that if the current crisis deepened,
this time the yen could weaken versus the dollar, unlike the
global financial crisis in 2008.
(Additional reporting by Nia Williams; editing by Anna Willard)