BLBG:Oil Declines a Third Day on Global Economic Slowdown, Rising Crude Supply
Oil dropped for a third day in New York as investors speculated that Europe’s debt crisis will slow the economy and curb fuel demand as crude supplies climb.
Futures slid as much as 2.2 percent after falling yesterday to the lowest settlement in more than a year. European leaders indicated that investors may have to take bigger losses than previously assumed on Greek debt, while Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for Japan’s economic growth. U.S. crude inventories climbed for a second week, an Energy Department report tomorrow is forecast to show. Libya may raise production to more than 500,000 barrels a day by the end of this month.
“We are seeing continuing pressure across the commodities complex from these concerns about the global growth prospect,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific Pty Ltd. in Sydney. “The markets are universally bearish, and we’re looking for reasons to sell. The oil markets are being affected by that.”
Crude for November delivery declined as much as $1.69 to $75.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $76.74 at 3:50 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday fell 2 percent to $77.61, the lowest close since Sept. 28, 2010. Prices are down 16 percent this year.
Brent oil for November settlement slipped 0.7 percent to $101.05 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract was at a premium of $24.31 to New York crude, compared with a record of $26.87 on Sept. 6.
Greece, Japan
European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg yesterday considered “technical revisions” to a July deal that foresaw investors contributing 50 billion euros ($66 billion) to a 159 billion-euro rescue for Greece.
Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for Japan’s economic growth in the fiscal year ending March 2012 to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent, citing a global slowdown. The country accounted for about 5 percent of the world’s oil demand last year, according to BP Plc’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy.
Hedge funds and other money managers cut bullish bets on Brent by 36 percent in the week ended Sept. 27, according to data from ICE Futures Europe. Speculative bets that prices will rise in futures and options combined outnumbered short positions by 47,027 contracts, the London-based exchange said yesterday in its weekly Commitment of Traders report.
Crude Supplies
Libya aims to raise oil output after the North African nation restarted the Zawiya refinery, its second largest, according to Nuri Berruien, the chairman of state-run National Oil Corp. The country’s goal of restoring crude production to 1.7 million barrels a day within 15 months is a “conservative figure,” he said yesterday in Tripoli.
Fighting in Libya reduced the availability of light, sweet crude, or oil with low density and sulfur content. The country’s output fell to 45,000 barrels a day in August, according to Bloomberg estimates. The North African nation pumped 100,000 barrels a day last month.
U.S. crude inventories rose 1.9 million barrels last week, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before the Energy Department report. Gasoline supplies climbed 1.23 million barrels, the survey shows.
New York crude may test technical support at around $74 a barrel and $64 a barrel, levels that correspond with the 50 and 62 percent retracement levels on a Fibonacci study from lows in January 2009, said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., an energy advisory company in Villanova, Pennsylvania.
Brent oil may fall to $84 a barrel after its 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day average last week in a formation known as the “death cross,” according to technical analysis by hedge fund Again Capital LLC.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Gordon in Hong Kong at pgordon6@bloomberg.net