BLBG: Euro Declines on Speculation ECB May Lower Interest Rates; Pound Tumbles
The euro declined toward a 10-year low against the yen and fell versus the dollar before a European Central Bank meeting at which some economists predict policy makers will cut interest rates to spur growth.
The pound slumped against all its major counterparts after the Bank of England expanded its bond-purchase plan and kept its benchmark interest at a record low. The Swiss franc weakened after the central bank said its currency holdings increased to a record last month after its decision to cap the currency’s gain. The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened as Asian stocks extended a rally in shares around the world, spurring demand for higher-yielding assets.
“All eyes are on the ECB’s rate decision,” said You-Na Park, a foreign-exchange strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “Many analysts consider a rate cut to be likely, and markets are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut.” Park said she doesn’t expect the ECB to lower its refinancing rate today.
The euro fell 0.5 percent to 102.04 yen at 12:29 p.m. in London after dropping to 100.76 on Oct. 4, the weakest level since June 2001. The currency dropped 0.2 percent to $1.3317. It dropped to $1.3146 on Oct. 4, the lowest since Jan. 13. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 76.62 per dollar.
Sterling slid 0.9 percent to $1.5319, and weakened 0.7 percent to 86.91 pence per euro.
The ECB will cut its benchmark interest rate from 1.5 percent at today’s meeting, according to 11 of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Six of those said the central bank will lower the rate by half a percentage point, and five expect a reduction to 1.25 percent. The rest predict no change.
The meeting will be the last chaired by President Jean- Claude Trichet before he hands the presidency to Italy’s Mario Draghi on Nov. 1.
Pound Drops
Sterling tumbled after U.K. policy makers said they would increase their bond-purchase program by 75 billion pounds. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for no change.
“It’s slightly bigger than we thought,” said John Hydeskov, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in London. “It’s definitely not good for the pound. We’re seeing a big weakening at the moment. I would say that this can continue to 87.50 pence.”
The main rate was maintained at 0.5 percent, as predicted by all 53 economists in a separate survey.
Franc Falls
The franc dropped against 11 of its 16 major counterparts amid speculation the central bank will impose further measures to contain its strength after imposing the cap last month at 1.20 per euro. Reserves jumped to 282.4 billion francs ($306 billion) at the end of September, from 253.4 billion francs the previous month, the SNB said.
“The Swiss National Bank supports the euro-franc exchange rate with franc sales, and there is continued speculation that the SNB might raise the lower threshold for the euro-franc from 1.20,” Lutz Karpowitz, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, wrote in a note to clients.
The franc dropped 0.2 percent to 92.47 centimes per dollar, and fell 0.4 percent to 82.85 yen. It was little changed at 1.2314 per euro.
Australia’s dollar appreciated 0.6 percent to 97.14 U.S. cents, and New Zealand’s currency rose 0.5 percent to 76.98 cents. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of shares gained 3.2 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kristine Aquino in Singapore at kaquino1@bloomberg.net; Keith Jenkins in London at kjenkins3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Daniel Tilles at dtilles@bloomberg.net