BLBG:Oil Falls a Second Day on Bets U.S. and China Demand to Slow; Brent Gains
Oil dropped for a second day in New York as signs of weakening U.S. gasoline demand and slowing crude imports in China stoked speculation that consumption will falter in the world’s largest energy users.
Futures fell as much as 1.1 percent after a report by the American Petroleum Institute yesterday indicated that U.S. gasoline demand slid the most in more than five years. China’s net crude imports declined to the third-lowest level this year, the customs bureau said today. Brent oil in London climbed to the highest premium to New York crude in five weeks.
“The economy is showing moderate, sub-trend growth,” Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone today. Oil prices will remain vulnerable to “supply shocks, if and when they come along,” he said.
Crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange declined as much as 93 cents to $84.64 a barrel in electronic trading. It was at $85.26 at 3:28 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract slid 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $85.57. Prices are down 6.7 percent this year.
Brent oil for November settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange rose 41 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $111.77 a barrel. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $26.51 to U.S. contract, the highest since reaching a record of $26.87 on Sept. 6. The more actively traded December Brent future climbed 36 cents to $109.33.
Gasoline Consumption
Implied gasoline demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, dropped 10.5 percent in the week to Oct. 7, the API report showed. That’s the biggest decline since March 2006. Crude stockpiles fell 3.81 million barrels to 340.4 million, the lowest in nine months. An Energy Department report today was forecast to show inventories rose 800,000 barrels, according to the median estimate of 15 analyst surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, rose for a second week to 405,000 in the period ended Oct. 8, a separate report may show.
Oil may extend losses in New York if futures settle below chart support along the 50-day moving average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices have closed in the past three days above this level, around $84.86 a barrel today. Sell orders tend to be clustered below technical-support levels.
China Economy
China, the world’s second-largest oil user, reduced net imports of the commodity in September as the economy slowed. Net purchases declined to 4.92 million barrels a day last month from 4.95 million in August, according to data from the General Administration of Customs today. Purchases exceeded 5 million barrels a day in each of the first five months of this year.
The nation’s economic growth slowed to 9.3 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the second, based on the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg News. Export growth in September slowed to the lowest in seven months, a report today showed.
The International Energy Agency yesterday cut its 2012 oil- demand estimate by 210,000 barrels a day and predicted output from Libya will rebound to 50 percent more than earlier forecast.
Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, may pump about 600,000 barrels a day of crude by the end of the year, up from an earlier estimate of as much as 400,000 barrels, according to the IEA. The national oil company and international partners have restored production from some areas and four fields have started, the Paris-based agency said.
Saudi Arabia’s spare production capacity is greater than 2.5 million barrels a day, Prince Turki bin Faisal bin Abdulaziz al-Saud said in London yesterday. The kingdom is the biggest producer in OPEC, which is responsible for 40 percent of global oil output.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in Singapore at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net