RTRS:FOREX-Euro retreats from 6-week high vs dollar
* Euro rises to 6-week high of $1.3955 but slips back
* EU nears agreement on EFSF leverage, bank recapitalisation
* Disaccord on Greek writedowns, weak EZ PMI's keep
investors wary
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The euro fell versus the dollar
on Monday, coming off a six-week high as uncertainty over
whether euro zone leaders would agree a comprehensive plan to
tackle the debt crisis this week prompted investors to take
profit on its earlier rally.
The euro had gained in early European trade after the EU
neared an agreement over the weekend on bank recapitalisation
and euro zone officials said France and Germany were close to
agreement on how to use the European Financial Stability
Facility (EFSF) to stave off bond market contagion.
However, serious divisions still linger over the size of the
haircut private holders of Greek bonds will have to accept, with
a final decision delayed until a second summit on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the yen, trading close
to a record low hit on and leaving traders on alert for possible
renewed currency intervention to stem strength in the Japanese
currency.
The euro rose as high as $1.3955 against the dollar ,
but traders said it lacked the momentum for further gains
towards $1.40, prompting short-term traders to take profit on
long euro positions taken out during the early rally. It was
last down 0.3 percent at $1.3848.
"I wouldn't go long on the euro right now. Event risk is
still to the downside for the euro because the market is already
priced for EU leaders to come up with a fairly big plan," said
Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.
He added, however, that the euro could easily rise to around
$1.41 on a positive summit outcome as it would prompt
speculators to further cut back on short euro positions.
The latest IMM data showed speculators increased short euro
positions in the week ended Oct. 18 on scepticism over the
ability of EU leaders to resolve the region's crisis. This means
any moves higher may be exaggerated as market players take
profit on those positions.
The euro stood well above its nine-month low plumbed earlier
this month at $1.3145 and analysts said it was likely to stay
supported at least until Wednesday's summit concludes.
Traders cited bids between $1.3780 and $1.3810 which they
said may cap falls, while the euro has support at the 100-week
moving average around $1.3658.
However, resistance stands at the 200-week moving average
near the pivotal $1.4000 level.
"There are expectations for progress in the euro zone over
the next few days but there's also plenty of room for
disappointment so people are taking profits in the euro where
they can," said Kathleen Brooks, head of research strategy at
FOREX.com.
She also highlighted Monday's euro zone purchasing manager
surveys weighing on the euro. Economists said the unexpected
weakness of this data suggested the debt crisis may already have
pushed the region into recession.
DOLLAR/YEN FOCUS
Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.2 percent at 76.07
yen , not far above Friday's all-time low of 75.78 yen.
Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said on Monday that
Japan would take decisive action on excessive and speculative
forex moves. He said that the greenback below 76 yen did not
reflect economic fundamentals.
Earlier strength in the euro helped to pushed the dollar
index to its lowest in six weeks at 76.053 before
steadying at 76.449.
Comments on Friday from Federal Reserve vice chair Janet
Yellen that the Fed is looking at ways to offer more monetary
stimulus, added to downside pressure.
The growth-linked Australian dollar was up 0.1
percent at $1.0378, though it was off an earlier six-week high
of $1.0425.