WSJ:OIL FUTURES: Crude Mixed Ahead Of Europe Summit, Nymex In Focus
By Sarah Kent
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Crude futures were mixed Tuesday, as Nymex extended gains of more than 4% made Monday, while European benchmark Brent languished in negative territory.
The outcome of Wednesday's European summit remains crucial to the market's direction in the coming days, but in the meantime, the extraordinary shift in fortunes of the American benchmark is running the show.
At 0958 GMT, the front-month December Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange was 19 cents, or 0.2%, lower at $111.26 a barrel.
The front-month December contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading up 93 cents, or 1%, at $92.20 per barrel, after rising to $92.99 a barrel, a high of nearly three months, earlier in the day.
Prices of Nymex crude, also known as West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, have bounced significantly since the beginning of the week, as more positive economic sentiment and a substantial shift in the contract's curve structure sent traders piling into the American crude.
WTI flipped into backwardation for the first time since 2008 Monday, sending trading volumes through the roof, to their highest since Libya's uprising began in February.
Backwardation is a term used to describe the situation that occurs when current prices are more expensive than those further in the future. It indicates that the supply-demand picture is tightening, a bullish signal for traders.
A surge in copper prices and positive data out of China also helped relieve concerns over the state of the global economy, helping buoy the price of Nymex.
"We come from a situation where just a couple of weeks ago investors were worried about recession...and a lot of hedges were brought in to protect against that. We're seeing a lot of those hedges unraveling," said Ole Hansen, manager futures and fixed income trading desk at Saxo Bank. "WTI has taken the brunt of whatever those hedges have been and those hedges are being pulled back at the moment," he added.
However, whether this pattern continues is very much dependent on the outcome of Wednesday's European summit when the region's leaders are expected to deliver a comprehensive plan to stave off a euro-zone debt melt-down, analysts said.
"The market is now expecting something positive to come out of the European meeting; that they will have some kind of plan that at least in the short term will provide some kind of solution," said Thina Saltvedt, senior oil market analyst at Nordea Bank Norge.
If European leaders fail to come to an agreement, the mood could sour very quickly, taking prices lower with it, said analysts.
Later in the day, attention may also turn to U.S. consumer confidence figures which investors will read for indications of the health of the economy in the world's largest oil consumer.
At 0958 GMT, the ICE's gasoil contract for November delivery was up $2.75, or 0.3%, at $955.25 per metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for November delivery was 238 points, or 0.9%, lower at $2.6650 per gallon.
-By Sarah Kent, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9376; sarah.kent@dowjones.com