* Brazil net crude exports at 1.5-1.6 mln bpd by 2020 * Sees Brazil as one of world's three largest oil producers * Sees crude oil exports to U.S., China at 400,000-450,000 bpd (Adds details, refinery table) By Florence Tan and Simon Webb SINGAPORE, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Petrobras expects to triple crude exports to between 1.5 million and 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2020, with CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli on Tuesday naming the United States and China as the firm's key markets. The Brazilian state oil firm expects to boost crude output to 3.9 million bpd by 2015 and 4.9 million bpd by 2020 from 2.1 million bpd this year, which would make Brazil one of the world's three largest oil producers, Gabrielli said. "We are forecasting to become a very big net exporter by 2020, not only of oil products but also of crude," Gabrielli told the Singapore International Energy Week conference. Petrobras currently exports 520,000 bpd of crude. Crude oil exports to the United States and China would double to 400,000-450,000 bpd each, he added. "China is going to be the same size as the United States. Right now they are about the same at about 200,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd of exports. That will be growing to about twice that size. We hope that we can also increase exports to other Asian countries," he said. Global fuel consumption would grow around 3-4 percent for the next five years, Gabrielli said, which would support prices in the long term. To meet that growth in demand and to compensate for the decline in output from existing fields, the world would have to add between 40 million bpd and 65 million bpd in new crude output capacity in the next 10 years, he added. "That's the reason I don't see oil price dropping in next 5 to 10 years," he told Reuters. Brazil's oil finds have put it in line to become a major global supplier of crude. Four of the world's ten biggest discoveries since 2000, including the offshore Lula and Franco finds, were made off the coast of the South American nation. Petrobras plans to spend more than half of its 2011-2015 capital expenditure of $225 billion to tap the ultra deep-water subsalt, an area the size of New York state which is believed to hold at least 50 billion barrels of oil. Refining, transport and sales activities will account for 31 percent of total investment. "Our main challenge is to extract resources," Gabrielli said. The company will ramp up output at its pre-salt Lula field to 120,000 bpd, up from 36,900 bpd now, when a second well is added next year, he said. Petrobras assumes a Brent oil price of between $80 and $95 per barrel for cash flow purposes, Gabrielli said. "At $80 we can generate $125 billion net cash flow after payment of dividends and at $95 we can generate $149 billion in next five years of net cash flow," he said. To raise funds, Petrobras has also earmarked $13.6 billion worth of assets to sell as part of the five-year investment plan. DOWNSTREAM Brazil will continue to import gasoline and diesel before the first of four new refineries start up in 2013, Gabrielli said. Gasoline imports tripled this year after ethanol prices surged while Brazil buys 600,000-1 million bpd of diesel from India each month, Petrobras executives said. Four new refineries will add 1.4 million bpd of oil products output, the CEO said, lifting refinery capacity to around 3.2 million bpd by 2020. Gabrielli forecast total product exports in 2020 to reach 67,000 bpd. He said that the company's crude refining will account for 39 percent of Latin America's total projected capacity by 2016. The vast majority of Petrobras' revenue comes from sales in Brazil. Petrobras plans to double its share of Brazil's ethanol market to 12 percent in 2015 by nearly quadrupling its ethanol output to 5.6 million cubic metres, Gabrielli said. It produces 1.5 million cubic metres of ethanol now. Gabrielli also said he does not think Britain's BG Group plans to sell its stake in its Brazil subsidiary. Brazilian media reported last month that BG might sell part of its holdings in offshore blocks in Brazil. Gabrielli said at the time that BG may sells shares in its Brazilian subsidiary but not in its offshore oil blocks. Table of Petrobras refinery projects Refinery Capacity (bpd) Start-up date Abreu E Lima 230,000 2013 Comperj (1st train) 165,000 2015 Premium I (1st train) 300,000 2016 Premium II 300,000 2017 Comperj (2nd train) 165,000 2018 Premium I (2nd train) 300,000 2019 Total 1,460,000 Source: Petrobras (Additional reporting by Jessica Jaganathan and Seng Li Peng; Writing by Michael Urquhart; Editing by Miral Fahmy)

Source