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BLBG:Oil Trades Near 3-Month High After ECB Cuts Rate, Greece Drops Vote Plan
 
Oil traded near a three-month high in New York as signs that Europe will reach an agreement with Greece on its debt reduced concern that faltering global economic growth will limit fuel demand.
Futures were little changed after climbing 1.7 percent yesterday. Prices are headed for a fifth weekly gain, the longest streak since April 2009. Greece won’t hold a public vote on a rescue package, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers in Athens yesterday. Oil in New York has failed to breach its 200-day moving average, which is at $94.84 a barrel today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“As we get some probability the Europe situation is being contained then people are willing to put risk back on,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “With the prospect of a low-growth economic environment and a still tight supply situation, that still puts a bit of a base under oil.”
Crude for December delivery was at $94.02 a barrel, down 5 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:23 p.m. in Singapore. The contract yesterday rose $1.56 to $94.07, the highest settlement since Aug. 1. Futures are up 0.8 percent this week and 2.9 percent in 2011.
Brent oil for December settlement was at $110.63 a barrel, down 20 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract yesterday increased 1.4 percent to end the session at $110.83. The difference between Nymex crude and Brent was at $16.61 a barrel, down 40 percent from the record high of $27.88 on Oct. 14.
Europe Demand
The European Union accounted for 16 percent of the world oil demand in 2010, according to BP Plc’s annual Statistical Review of World Energy. The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consumer, using 19.1 million barrels a day, or 21 percent of global consumption.
Payrolls in the U.S. probably climbed by 95,000 workers last month after a 103,000 September increase, according to the median forecast of 91 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a Labor Department report today. The jobless rate was 9.1 percent for a fourth consecutive month, economists predicted.
The increase is “not nearly enough jobs to reduce unemployment and feed through to an increase in confidence,” said Spooner. “But it is better than the recession outlook that we were looking at before.”
Oil futures may be poised to drop as the five-day stochastic oscillators remain above 70, an indication prices may have advanced too quickly, according to Bloomberg data. Investors tend to sell contracts when they are considered “overbought.”
Oil may fall next week amid forecasts of an economic slowdown in Europe that may crimp fuel demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Nineteen of 31 analysts, or 61 percent, forecast oil will decline through Nov. 11. Ten, or 32 percent, predicted a gain, and two said there will be little change. Last week, 48 percent of those surveyed projected a drop.
To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
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