BLBG:Aussie Drops After Housing Data, New Zealand Dollar Falls on China PMI
Australia’s dollar fell from near a two-week high after government reports showed building approvals dropped in October and consumer spending slowed, strengthening the case for interest-rate cuts by the central bank.
The so-called Aussie declined against all 16 of its most- traded counterparts after private building permits sank for a second straight month. New Zealand’s currency slid as an index of Chinese manufacturing indicated a contraction for the first time since February 2009. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and New Zealand’s second-biggest export destination.
“Housing and the consumer are still a very big part of the Australian economy, so this is not a great result and adds to the case that there should be further monetary policy easing,” said Jonathan Cavenagh, a currency strategist in Singapore at Westpac Banking Corp., Australia’s second-largest lender. “The data has given the Aussie a kick lower and it should trend down a little from here.”
Australia’s dollar fell 0.7 percent to $1.0210 at 2:41 p.m. in Sydney, from $1.0283 in New York yesterday, when it climbed the most in five weeks. It yesterday touched $1.0328, the most since Nov. 14. The currency declined 0.6 percent to 79.34 yen. New Zealand’s dollar fell 0.3 percent to 77.80 U.S. cents and slid 0.2 percent to 60.46 yen.
The number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments in Australia fell 10.7 percent in October from the previous month, when they dropped a revised 14.2 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said today. None of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted a decline.
Rate-Cut Bets
Retail sales climbed 0.2 percent from a month earlier, when they rose 0.4 percent, the statistics agency said, less than the median estimate for a 0.4 percent gain.
“It was a reasonably soft set of activity data to kick off the fourth quarter, with particular weakness in the housing numbers,” said said Su-Lin Ong, head of Australian economic and fixed-income strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely cut rates next week, she said.
Swaps traders are betting the central bank will lower its benchmark 25 basis points, for a second straight month when policy makers meet Dec. 6, a Credit Suisse AG index shows. The RBA’s cash target currently stands at 4.5 percent.
China PMI
New Zealand’s dollar fell for the first time in four days. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for China fell to 49.0 in November from 50.4 in October, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists was 49.8. A level above 50 indicates expansion.
An ANZ National Bank Ltd. index today showed New Zealand’s commodity export prices fell for a sixth month in November, the longest stretch of declines since the economy contracted in 2008 and early 2009. Prices dropped 1 percent from October, the index showed. In New Zealand dollar terms, prices rose 1.2 percent.
The nation’s central bank will keep the official cash rate at a record-low 2.5 percent until the fourth quarter next year amid modest economic growth and tighter fiscal policy, Goldman Sachs New Zealand Ltd. economist Philip Borkin wrote in an e- mailed report.
New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, was little changed at 2.86 percent. It fell to a record low 2.6 percent on Nov. 24. Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose 7 basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 4 percent today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net;
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net