RTRS: Euro holds above 2-month low but still vulnerable
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - The euro held above a
two-month low versus the dollar on Tuesday but was seen
vulnerable to further selling as the threat of euro zone
sovereign downgrades hung over the currency and kept investors
wary.
Short covering helped the euro rebound modestly after it
failed to break below a reported barrier at $1.3150, but traders
said there remained a clear bias to sell on any bounce.
The single currency was up 0.1 percent at $1.3200,
having hit its lowest since early October at $1.3160 on trading
platform EBS in the Asian session. Option-related bids were
reported ahead of $1.3150, with support at the October low of
$1.3145.
Traders highlighted short-term stop-loss orders at $1.3250
and good selling interest above. Against the yen, the euro
slipped to a two-month low of 102.42 on EBS before steadying at
102.75.
Investors took some encouragement from lower yields at an
auction of Spanish short-term debt, while a survey showed German
investor sentiment rose unexpectedly in December though worries
about the severity of the region's debt crisis remained.
Comments from France's candidate for a seat on the European
Central Bank's Executive Board, Benoit Coeure, who said the ECB
may need to step up its bond-buying to help reduce borrowing
costs for some states, were also euro-positive.
"The Spanish auction was reassuring but there is still an
Italian auction to come this week and the market will be
inclined to push the euro lower from here," said Audrey
Childe-Freeman, EMEA head of currency strategy at JP Morgan
Private Bank.
"The only thing that would be enough to restore confidence
for now would be aggressive bond buying by the ECB," she said,
though repatriation flows could support the euro heading into
year-end.
Moody's said on Monday it intends to review the credit
ratings of all 27 European Union states in the first quarter of
2012, while another ratings agency, Fitch, said pressure on
their ratings had risen after last week's EU summit yielded no
"comprehensive" crisis solution.
Standard & Poor's, the other major rating agency, already
has 15 euro zone states on watch for a possible downgrade.
"The last blow for the euro was the announcement from the
ratings agencies last night," said Niels Christensen, currency
strategist at Nordea in Copenhagen.
"The technical configuration is turning against the euro. If
it breaks below the early October lows then very quickly $1.30
would be in the frame, plus we have thin markets. It all adds up
to a clear bias to the downside for euro/dollar."
Although IMM speculative positioning data suggested strongly
negative sentiment towards the euro, the single currency could
gain short-term support as investors take profits on or cover
those positions.
Some support was also garnered from a solid start to the new
short-term debt issuance programme of the European Financial
Stability (EFSF) Bailout Fund, which sold nearly 2 billion euros
of three-month bills at a yield of 0.22 percent.
FALLING RISK APPETITE
Pressure on the euro and heightened risk aversion increased
the dollar's safe-haven appeal, lifting the dollar index
to 79.651, its highest this month, before it dropped back to
79.478.
Later on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve holds its final policy
meeting of the year but it is not expected to take any action
other than some finishing touches to its communication strategy.
Many analysts expect the Fed to wait until a two-day meeting on
Jan. 24-25 before launching any new initiatives.
U.S. retail sales data will be released ahead of the Fed
meeting.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar was up 0.4
percent at $1.0118, having earlier shed more than 1 cent to a
two-week low of $1.0030.
Market liquidity was thin ahead of year-end holidays, which
may hurt demand in sales of Italian and Spanish bonds on
Wednesday and Thursday. Weak results would add to pressure on
the euro.