RTRS:FOREX-Euro inches up, outlook clouded by ratings threat
* Euro up 0.2 pct vs dollar; S&P ratings threat weighs
* Single currency down around 2.6 pct on week so far
* Potential for short-covering rally seen limited
By Nia Williams
LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The euro edged higher
against the dollar on Friday but stayed on track for its worst
weekly performance in more than three months, with the threat of
euro zone sovereign downgrades keeping investors wary of buying
the common currency.
The single currency has fallen around 2.6 percent on the
week, its worst performance since September, after a key
European Union summit last week failed to provide respite to
turbulent euro zone bond markets and cash-starved banks.
Analysts said a threat of downgrades from rating agency
Standard & Poor's, which put a raft of euro zone countries on
review ahead of the summit, continued to hang over governments
including Germany and France.
Rumours of such an event have been circulating since last
week, although Italian and Spanish bond spreads over Bunds were
tighter on Friday..
The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3039, with traders
reporting thin end-of-year liquidity. It hovered close to a
session high of $1.3045, reached after a well-bid Spanish
auction on Thursday and solid U.S. economic data prompted some
light short-covering.
Some traders said the euro could be poised for a recovery
given the extent of its fall this week and topside stop loss
orders were seen around $1.3065-$1.31. But most market players
said they expected any short-covering rally to be limited by the
wider political uncertainty.
"Any minute a rating agency might announce they are cutting
ratings for a euro zone country. I doubt the summit results will
change their mind, there was not really anything sustainable in
it," said Lutz Karpowitz, currency analyst at Commerzbank.
"From a news-driven point of view it's more likely we will
break $1.30 to the downside."
Earlier this week the euro dropped to an 11-month low around
$1.2945 and a break below that level would open the door to a
test of the January low around $1.2871.
Analysts said some investors are concerned some European
Union states may develop cold feet over proposals on a tighter
fiscal regime that were the centerpiece of the summit.
Uncertainty over the outcome of Greek debt swap negotiations
and signs that some national central banks including Germany's
Bundesbank are reluctant to boost lending to the IMF added to
the view the crisis may intensify in the New Year.
"The first quarter is looking extremely worrying, Greece is
looking worse than anticipated and Ireland will potentially need
a referendum (on EU treaty changes)," said Derek Halpenny, head
of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
"The euro zone could be unravelling and as long as that
option remains in the market, the risk of pronounced moves and
significant uncertainty remains extremely high."
IMPLIED VOLS SLUMP
Markets will also be keeping an eye on a confidence vote in
the Italian parliament later in the day to speed up approval of
a 33 billion euro ($43 billion) austerity package, which the
government is expected to win.
In the options market, one-month euro/dollar implied
volatilities hit a 3-1/2-month low around 12.7, coming
further off the elevated levels that prevailed in recent months.
Option traders attributed the decline in volatility to many
institutions closing their books ahead of the Christmas
holidays, rather than to reduced anxiety about the euro zone
debt crisis.
The euro was steady versus the Swiss franc at 1.2230 francs
after sustaining heavy losses on Thursday when the
Swiss National Bank held its cap on the franc at 1.20 per euro.
The SNB's move knocked back speculation that the central
bank might step up their efforts to deter investors from seeking
safety in the currency and pushed the euro to a six-week low.
A slightly firmer euro saw the dollar index fall 0.2
percent to 80.146, although it remained in sight of an 11-month
high of 80.730 hit on Wednesday.
Commodity currencies were boosted by dip-buying
and stronger bourses in Asia, with the Australian dollar
up 0.9 percent at $1.0002. The New Zealand dollar
was also well bid, paring the previous day's losses and
adding 1.3 percent to $0.7624.