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RTRS:Japan 2012/13 oil demand may drop 3.9 pct if reactors restart
 
* Gas use for power to fall 13.4 pct if reactors restart

* Gas use to rise 10 pct if no reactors restart (Adds details, tables)

Dec 21 (Reuters) - Japan's total oil product sales are expected to fall 3.9 percent in the financial year starting April if the nation's nuclear plants are allowed to resume operations from next summer, the country's top energy forecaster said on Wednesday.

The decline would follow an estimated 0.1 percent fall for the current financial year ending in March.

Consumption of natural gas for power generation will likely drop 13.4 percent in 2012/13, after a projected 30.2 percent rise in 2010/11, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) said in its annual outlook.

But natural gas consumption could rise by about 10 percent if the reactors are not restarted.

No reactors taken offline for routine maintenance have been restarted due to public safety fears since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami triggered reactor meltdowns and radiation leaks at Tokyo Electric Power Co's Fukushima Daiichi power station northeast of Tokyo.

The IEEJ however expects the nation's demand for oil, gas and thermal coal for power generation to rise sharply in 2012/13 if no reactors shut for maintenance are allowed to restart.

Japan's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could hit up to around 90 million tonnes in 2012/13, up from 70 million tonnes in 2010, under that scenario, the IEEJ said.

LNG imports jumped 21 percent to their second-highest level ever in November, government data showed, as gas-fired power generation plugged the gap left by the shutdown of most nuclear reactors after the March earthquake.

CRUDE STEEL, ETHYLENE OUTPUT SEEN RISING

Japan's crude steel production will rise 2.8 percent to 110.55 million tonnes in 2012/13, while ethylene output is expected to rise 4 percent, the IEEJ projected.

The nation's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fuel, which typically accounts for around 90 percent of total emissions, is expected to fall 5.3 percent to 1.086 billion tonnes in 2012/13 if nuclear reactors restart operations from next summer.

The 2012/13 emissions volume would be 2.5 percent above the 1990/91 level.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Japan is obliged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 6 percent from 1990/91 levels to 1.186 billion tonnes a year on average over the five years to March 2013.

City gas sales are expected to rise 2.5 percent in 2012/13, extending a projected 0.3 percent gain in 2011/12, the IEEJ reported. (Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
Source