RTRS:Indian rupee nudges up on U.S. data, local shares
* Local share gains, supportive U.S. data aid
* Volumes remain low on cbank curbs, year-end caution
* Dollar demand for oil import payments watched
(Updates to close)
By Archana Narayanan
MUMBAI, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Indian rupee ended stronger
in thin trade on Monday as some bets on a further decline in the
currency were covered amid improved risk sentiments on positive
U.S. jobs and manufacturing data.
The rupee closed 0.4 percent stronger at
52.7250/7350 to the dollar, from Friday's close of 52.9600/9675.
"Most of the traders are absent from the market and in thin
liquidity conditions, small flows result in exaggerated moves,"
said Hari Chandramgathan, a forex dealer with Federal Bank in
Mumbai.
Holidays in the United States, Europe and some Asian markets
kept volumes light. Besides, banks are expected to avoid taking
big bets before closing their accounts for the quarter, traders
said.
" (Expect) no major change in the direction in
currency trend till second week of January. The euro zone
crisis, domestic economic slowdown are factored in, but still
there could be some risk aversion, when the actual event
happen," he said.
Chandramgathan expects the rupee to trade in 52.40/53.25
range in the near term.
A Reuters poll on Friday showed many analysts think most
potential negative factors have been factored in.
Bargain buying sent Indian shares up 1.47 percent in thin
trade on Monday, led by gains in software exporters, Reliance
Industries and lenders, as U.S. jobs and manufacturing
data signalled underlying strength in the U.S. economy.
Traders said a likely dollar swap arrangement by the
Japanese government with India could underpin the rupee in the
long run.
India and Japan are negotiating a new currency swap
agreement ahead of a visit to New Delhi by Japanese Prime
Minister Yoshihiko Noda this week, a foreign ministry official
said on Monday.
Measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India over the last
few days to curb currency speculation, after the rupee hit
a record low of 54.30 to the dollar on Dec. 15, also kept
the trading appetite subdued, dealers said.
For details of steps taken by the RBI to curb the rupee's
volatility and increase inflows, see:
"A renewed bout of global risk aversion emanating from the
ongoing euro area crisis can lead to further depreciation in the
INR and instability in the macro economy," said Arvind Chari,
debt fund manager at Quantum AMC.
The euro held its ground in very thin trade on Monday,
staying above an 11-month low against the dollar as investors
awaited an Italian debt auction later in the week.
Some traders cautioned that if domestic oil companies were
forced to step up dollar buying in a thin market to honour their
month-end payments, the rupee could slip towards the 53-mark.
One-month offshore non-deliverable forward
contracts
were quoted at 52.71, indicating more short-term weakness in the
onshore spot rate.
In the currency futures market, the most-traded
near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange
and the MCX-SX were at 52.79 and the United Stock Exchange was
at 52.78, on total volume at $2.3 trillion.