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RTRS:FOREX-Euro hits decade low vs yen, remains vulnerable
 
* Euro hits decade low vs yen, then recovers in thin trade
* Euro stays under $1.30 vs USD, more falls expected
* But substantial short euro positions could limit losses
By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a decade
low versus the Japanese yen on Monday as concerns about the
financing needs of indebted euro zone countries continued to
weigh on the shared currency, though moves were exacerbated in
holiday-thinned trade.
The euro fell as low as 98.71 yen on EBS trading
platform, its lowest since late 2000, extending falls seen on
Friday when it broke below 100 yen to finish the year down
around 8 percent.
It later recovered to 99.60 yen, with liquidity thin as
Asian, British and U.S. markets closed for New Year holidays.
Versus the dollar, the euro was at $1.2941, less
than a cent above its 2011 low of $1.2858 hit last week.
Worries about sovereign debt levels and a lack of policy
solutions to the region's 2-year-old debt crisis were expected
to push the euro lower in the coming weeks and months.
However, the euro's slide may be limited by periodic
short-covering rallies as investors unwind hefty bets against
the currency, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on
Friday showing short euro positions swelled to a record in the
latest week.
"There's still a lot of pressure on the euro due to concerns
about the refinancing needs of some euro zone countries in the
first quarter," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of currency
research at Danske Bank in Copenhagen.
"This is driving many to safer assets and currencies, like
the Japanese yen".
However, he said the substantial number of short euro
positions could limit the euro's falls, potentially enabling it
to rebound back above $1.30 versus the dollar, especially if
U.S. ISM and jobs data this week point to an improving U.S.
economy.
Nevertheless, in the absence of a comprehensive European
policy response to the debt crisis, the euro could test its 2010
low of $1.1876 next year, some traders said.
Policymakers marked the 10th anniversary on Sunday of the
introduction of euro notes and coins by urging governments to
save and consolidate to overcome their debt crises, while
warning 2012 would be harder than 2011.
Concerns about the massive task facing European leaders as
they struggle to contain the region's debt crisis were
highlighted as Spain's new government warned last week its 2011
budget deficit would be larger than expected.
A deteriorating euro zone economy will also worry investors,
with many anticipating a recession in the region. A survey on
Monday showed euro zone manufacturing activity declined for a
fifth consecutive month in December.

DEBT AUCTIONS EYED
From around $1.33 in January last year, the euro soared to
$1.4939 by May, then began a steady descent as the crisis that
began in smaller countries such as Greece and Ireland spread to
the larger core economies of Italy and Spain.
Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economy, remains at the
centre of the debt crisis, and its borrowing needs could
overwhelm the bloc's financial defences if it were forced to
seek an international bailout.
In the coming months, auctions of euro zone bonds will be
closely watched by investors who are nervous that appetite to
buy peripheral debt may be waning.

"We remain a sell on rallies (with the euro) as we tend to
think the euro zone crisis will actually get worse before it
gets better," Kathleen Brooks, research director at FOREX.com in
a note to clients.
The euro's troubles have benefited the dollar and yen, both
of which tend to attract safe-haven flows in times of trouble.
Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar was
up 0.1 percent at 80.237, having hit a near one-year high of
80.854 last week. The dollar fell to a one-month low against the
yen of around 76.30 yen.
Still, questions remain about the strength of the U.S.
economy and whether the Federal Reserve will opt for a third
round of monetary easing to boost lending and growth.
Sterling dipped 0.25 percent to $1.5496, while the
Australian dollar was steady at $1.0220.

Source