NEW DELHI: After an average loss of over one million dollar in every ten seconds of trade in stocks last year, market pundits seem to be playing it safe and are predicting Sensex levels ranging from as low as 8,000 to as high as 28,500 points in 2012. Going by these wide projections, the market valuations could either plunge to a low of about half the current levels, or might double in the New Year. The Sensex ended the year 2011 at 15,454.92 points. On the other hand, analysts appear much more optimistic about another year of rally in another major asset class, the gold, which emerged as the best investment avenue in 2011 as well, despite a high level of volatility. As the stock market investors burnt their fingers with heavy losses of Rs 19.46 crore ($619 billion) in 2011, the tried-and-tested gold added to its glitter and silver also managed to retain part of the sheen it gained during the year. In percentage terms, the losses in the stock market were 24.6 per cent, while gold appreciated by 32 per cent and silver by 10 per cent during 2011. Retaining its tag of the best asset class, gold prices began the year 2011 at Rs 20,890 per ten gram and ended at Rs 27,640. On the other hand, the silver prices rose from Rs 46,500 per kg to Rs 51,150. During the year, the gold prices had risen to close to Rs 30,000 level, while silver had gone close to Rs 60,000 at one point of time. While the gold prices managed to retain most of their gains, the same was not the case for silver. On the other hand, the stock market barometer Sensex fell by 5,054 points during 2011 to end at 15,454.92 points. The total investor wealth, measured in terms of cumulative market value of all listed stocks, dipped by Rs 19.46 lakh crore to Rs 53,48,644.8 crore ($1.002 trillion). Taking into account the total number of trading sessions during 2011, this corresponds to an average loss of more than one million dollar in every 10 seconds of trade. Religare Securities' CEO Gagan Randev said that the volatility in stock markets was here to stay, at least in the short to medium term. "Our view is that the markets will bottom out in first quarter and then begin a phase of upward consolidation. Our level for Sensex for 2012 is 18,000," he said. Mutual fund house Quantum Asset Management Co Director Ajit Dayal said that "those wishing for 'more certainty' (in the new year) should use their wish for something more likely to come true." "Global economic uncertainty will continue to plague us as it has since the year 2008... A butterfly flapping its wings in the US could cause a storm in Europe; a hiccup in Europe could cause a meltdown in Asia," Dayal noted. Noting that the stock market should benefit from growing earnings of Indian companies in the long run, Dayal said that it is FIIs, who will determine the level of share prices.

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