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RTRS:FOREX-Euro hits 16-mth low vs dollar, more falls likely
 
* Euro near 11-yr low vs yen
* Dollar index hits highest in a year
* U.S. payrolls in focus, strong number may hit euro
* Market sees possible drop to $1.25, then $1.20


By Jessica Mortimer
LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - The euro hit 16-month lows
against the dollar and sterling on Friday and traded close to an
11-year trough versus the yen, with growing unease about funding
pressures in the euro zone pointing to further declines.
U.S. payrolls data at 1330 GMT could provide a further dose
of optimism on the outlook for the U.S. economy after a measure
of private-sector hiring surged in December. Payrolls are tipped
to rise 150,000 in December, but many think the figure may be
higher.
Strong data could help risk sentiment, in theory helping the
euro, but many analysts expect it would weigh further on the
common currency instead as investors focus on the divergence
between the two economies, with the euro zone seen heading
towards recession.
The market is seen staying on edge and the euro under
pressure ahead of Italian and Spanish government bond sales next
week, viewed as the year's first big fundraising tests for
stuggling euro zone countries.
The euro was steady versus the dollar at $1.2781,
recovering from an earlier low of $1.2763 hit on trading
platform EBS, its weakest since September 2010.
It remained vulnerable to further bouts of selling, even
though it may be helped periodically by short-covering, as
market participants take profit on short euro positions which
have reached record high levels.
"There is a general tendency to sell the euro on any
rallies," said Ankita Dudani, currency strategist at RBS.
"Even if we get a strong non-farm payrolls print it would be
supportive for risk sentiment but not so for euro/dollar".
The euro's drop helped buoy the dollar to 81.062
against a basket of currencies, its strongest in a year. The
dollar index was last steady at 80.929.
The single currency also hit a 16-month low versus sterling
of 82.39 pence, while against the yen it
was at 98.62 yen, close to Thursday's 11-year low of 98.451 yen.
"The longer the euro zone crisis drags on the more a
solution has to come through the monetary route, i.e. through
the exchange rate," said Steve Barrow, head of G10 currency
research at Standard Bank.
"The question is whether the euro continues to fall at a
slow pace or whether it starts to fall more aggressively," which
could see it fall to $1.20 by the end of the month.
Standard Bank currently forecasts euro/dollar at $1.20 in
six months' time.

CRISIS TALKS
As well as next week's debt auctions, the market will await
a meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday for fresh hints on steps they
may take to try to resolve the crisis.
Investors are sceptical that they will announce anything to
allay fears about the troubles facing the euro zone.
The talks will centre on new rules to enforce budget
discipline across the European Union, but any new treaty would
take time to finalise, just as credit rating agencies assess
whether to downgrade a clutch of euro zone countries.
Traders reported euro selling by real money investors and
hedge funds. Renewed falls in the single currency would see it
target option barriers at $1.2750, $1.2700 and $1.2650, as well
as a large barrier at 98.00 yen, they say.
On technical charts, one support area for the euro is seen
around $1.2600, the 76.4 percent retracement of the June 2010 to
May 2011 rally. A break below $1.2500 is expected to pave the
way to a drop towards $1.2000.
Investors are particularly concerned about the borrowing
costs of Italy, which must pay out 100 billion euros in bond
coupons and redemptions in the first four months of 2012 alone.

Sarkozy is due to meet Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti
later on Friday, ahead of his meeting with Merkel next
week.
The dollar dipped 0.1 percent against the yen to 77.12 yen
, off a two-month low of 76.30 yen hit earlier this week.
Source