WSJ:NZ Dollar Up Late, Bounces Back From S&P Euro-Zone Downgrades
Late Change
NZD/USD 0.7935 +0.0023
NZD/AUD 0.7720 +0.0047
NZD/JPY 60.976 +0.242
April 2015 Bond 2.72% -7.0 bps
April 2023 Bond 3.995% -7.0 bps
10-Year U.S. Spread +213 bps -2.0 bps
90-Day Bank Bill 2.72% -5.0 bps
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--The New Zealand dollar traded slightly higher Monday as it bounced back from losses late Friday, when investor sentiment took a dive after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services downgraded nine of the 17 euro-zone countries.
Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Mike Jones said in a briefing that the Kiwi had benefited from euro selloffs following confirmation of this news.
"Given New Zealand's superior economic and fiscal outlook, it's hardly surprising that the New Zealand dollar was a beneficiary of the euro's decline," said Jones. "Indeed, solid demand from speculative and real money accounts propelled the New Zealand dollar from EUR0.6150 to EUR0.6270 last week--the highest level since the euro was introduced."
During Monday's session, the New Zealand unit drifted largely sideways as the S&P decision had already been priced in, but the focus remained on Europe and any further developments about a euro-zone bailout.
"What hasn't been fully priced in is any downgrade of the quality of the ESM [European Stability Mechanism] and the EFSF [European Financial Stability Facility] bailout fund... Both of them require an AAA rating to be effective, so if they lose that it would be a very bad thing," said Westpac currency strategist Imre Speizer.
This week, several local data releases are due, the first of which is the National Institute of Economic Research's quarterly business confidence survey on Tuesday.
Speizer said business confidence was likely to be weaker but this would probably be largely ignored by markets preoccupied with euro-zone issues.
New Zealand government bonds underperformed against interest-rate swaps as prices rallied following the offshore uncertainties, a local bond trader said.
-By Lucy Craymer, Dow Jones Newswires; 64-4-471-5990; lucy.craymer@dowjones.com