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RTRS:FOREX-Euro extends gains after German ZEW surprise
 
* Euro jumps to $1.2801 after German ZEW survey
* Aussie and Kiwi hit 2-1/2 mth highs on Chinese data

* Greek debt swap deal talks in focus (Adds quote, bank's f'cast on euro, updates prices)

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The euro rose for the first time in three trading sessions on Tuesday, while commodity currencies advanced, bolstered by a better-than-expected German economic sentiment survey and robust Chinese data, all of which gave risk appetite a shot in the arm.

A strong response to a Spanish treasury-bill auction added to the relief for the single currency, but the outlook remained shaky after Standard & Poor's downgraded the euro zone's EFSF rescue fund by one notch to AA+ following a raft of sovereign rating cuts on Friday.

Risks of a Greek debt default are also likely to see investors sell into rallies, with the prospect of more cuts in official interest rates also hanging over the single currency.

"The ZEW survey has helped sentiment towards the euro and given investors are very bearish and running short positions, there is room for it to climb in the very near term," said Marcus Hettinger, global FX strategist, at Credit Suisse.

"But it will be a struggle above $1.30 as we expect the European Central Bank to cut interest rates."

The euro rose 1 percent to $1.2785 in morning trade, moving past strong offers above $1.2780 and pulling further away from a 17-month low of $1.2624 hit last week on trading platform EBS.

It had reached as high as $1.2801 but traders cited stops above $1.2810, with a semi-official investor said to be a buyer after the German ZEW survey.

The single currency also climbed 0.7 percent against the yen to 97.69 yen, staying above an 11-year low of 97.04 yen struck on Monday. Renewed speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene to drive the yen lower against the euro could keep the yen in check for now.

Apart from expectations of rate cuts which will chip away at the premium investors get for holding euros instead of dollars, pounds or yen, the risk of a default by Greece in coming months and the possible ramifications for other peripheral countries is likely to weigh on the common currency.

The market will keep a close eye on talks between Athens and its private sector creditors on a debt swap deal which broke down last week but are expected to resume on Wednesday.

Cash-strapped Athens needs a deal with the private sector soon to avoid going bankrupt when 14.5 billion euros of bond redemptions fall due in late March.

Swiss bank UBS has lowered its end-2012 euro/dollar forecast to $1.15 from $1.25 previously and expects the common currency to fall to $1.20 in a month's time and $1.15 in three months.

"I don't think the euro's gains can last," said Ankita Dudhani, G10 currency strategist at RBS. "There is a lot of uncertainty about the euro zone. What markets are really concerned about are the Greek debt restructuring talks. The euro's gains could be capped at its 21-day moving average which is around $1.2890."

CHINESE BOOST

The Australian and New Zealand dollars outperformed the euro and rose to their highest in two-and-a-half months against the greenback after China's fourth quarter growth just exceeded market expectations.

Gross domestic product in an economy that is a key driver of global growth grew at an annual rate of 8.9 percent, although that remained the weakest in 2-1/2 years and down from 9.1 percent in the previous quarter.

The Australian dollar jumped 1.3 percent to $1.0440 while the New Zealand dollar also rose by a similar margin to $0.8021.

The common currency was also supported verbally by Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi. Speaking in the wake of the recent slide in euro/yen, Azumi said he was closely watching the impact of a weak euro on Japanese exporters.

Rob Ryan, FX strategist for BNP Paribas in Singapore, said the possibility of Japanese yen-selling intervention might increase if the yen were to start rising broadly.

"It's pointless to try and stop the slide of the euro against everything. Maybe they have to wait until the risk-off hits the market," Ryan said. "When you start to see Aussie/yen, and dollar/yen and euro/yen all slide together then you have the green light for action," Ryan added.

The dollar was flat against the yen at 76.75 yen. Japan conducted massive yen-selling intervention late last October after the dollar hit a record low of 75.311 yen. (Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Patrick Graham)
Source