By Kirk Spano
This week the Energy Information Administration released a preliminary draft of its US Energy Outlook From Now Through 2035 . A few things jump out that reaffirmed a simple thesis I have, shared by many, which is that the trucking industry will gradually shift much of its fuel consumption towards natural gas over the next decade or so.
While we all know that international demand for oil is rising, it is clear that most Americans underestimate that demand. Over the next several years, it is very likely that the United States sees even more dramatic reductions in oversea oil imports than the past few years, as other nations demand the oil instead. China in particular has demand that is growing at 5% per year and has growing ties to many oil-producing nations. This will all contribute to continued upward pressure on diesel and gasoline costs.
Much of the reduced levels of oversea imports will be offset by increased Canadian imports and domestic production, as well as by continuing improvements in efficiency. However, much of the rest of the difference will have to be made up from substitution fuel sources. In my last article I discussed that passenger cars and SUVs which account for 63% of transportation energy usage appeared headed for a hybrid future . Trucking, which accounts for about 20% of transportation energy usage, seems headed in another direction, natural gas.
