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RTRS:Euro rises after euro zone seals Greece bailout
 
By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO (Reuters) - The euro gained in Asia on Tuesday, popping above resistance at its 90-day moving average after euro zone finance ministers sealed a bailout package for Greece, though some analysts doubt the news will give the currency a big fillip.

The agreement on the 130 billion euro bailout programme, while long expected, will help Greece meet repayment needs next month, sparking a knee-jerk, 100-pip rise in the euro against the dollar.

The euro rose as high as $1.3293, its highest in nearly two weeks, before stabilising at around $1.3265, about 0.2 percent higher than late Monday levels in London. U.S. financial markets were on holiday on Monday.

The common currency, in its third attempt in recent weeks, pierced its 90-day moving average at $1.3273, and traders say a sustained gain above that level could prompt more buying in the near term.

"I suppose the market has been expecting this but nevertheless it is a positive factor for the euro," said Takako Masai, manager of forex at Shinsei Bank, adding that the euro could spike higher if it breaks above its February 9 peak of

$1.3322.

The euro rose 0.4 percent versus the yen to hit a fresh three-month high of 105.957 yen.

But many market participants said any relief over the bailout deal was likely to be eclipsed by concerns of more uphill battles for Europe to fix its economic woes.

"When you look at the economic fundamentals, the dollar is in a favourable position. I think the euro is likely to fall to around $1.30," said Koji Fukaya, chief currency strategist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo.

The euro zone economy is on the verge of recession in part because of fiscal tightening efforts to cope with the debt crisis. That stands in sharp contrast to the U.S. economy, which has regained some strength in recent months.

While the bailout package will enable Athens to launch a bond swap with private investors to write off around 100 billion euros of debt, it is unclear how many investors will actually take the deal, analysts said.

Some market players also say that the two main parties that back Greece's technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos could lose their parliamentary majority after an election in April as support for them has fallen to an all-time low, raising concerns about Athens' commitment to promised reforms.

YEN AT MULTI-MONTH LOWS

The yen hovered near multi-month lows against most other major currencies, with last week's surprise easing by the Bank of Japan having prompted speculators to crank yen-selling into high gear.

The dollar fetched 79.66 yen, not far from a 6 1/2-month high of 79.89 yen hit on Monday.

But the U.S. currency now faces strong technical resistance from a cloud on weekly Ichimoku charts, which it has not managed to stay above for any sustained period since mid-2007.

The bottom of the cloud stands at 79.73 while its top is at 80.94 this week.

"The dollar seems to be capped for now after strong gains," said Teppei Ino, a currency analyst at Bank of Mitsubishi Tokyo

UFJ.

The Aussie slipped 0.2 percent to $1.0724, with its rally stalling after hitting a six-month high of $1.0845 earlier this month.

It extended losses briefly after the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's February 7 meeting were initially perceived as dovish, though they showed board members merely reiterated that a benign inflation outlook meant it could cut rates if necessary.

The Aussie and other risk-sensitive currencies have benefited from a splurge of easing by the world's central banks, with Japan and China joining in during the past week. But some analysts warn the euphoria may not last.

"The central banks are engaging in extraordinary easing because there are extraordinary risks in the economy. It is a big mistake if they are doing it as a service to financial markets," said Mitsuru Saito, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Securities, adding that the Greek crisis still had the potential to wreak havoc on financial markets.

Saito said many banks could suffer losses if payment of default insurance through credit default swaps (CDS) was triggered.

Greece said on Tuesday it would pass legislation allowing it to enforce losses on bondholders who decline to take part in a voluntary bond swap plan, known as PSI or private sector involvement, that forms part of its bailout.

Forced losses for investors have been considered a "credit event" that triggers such payments.
Source