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RTRS:FOREX-Euro stumbles as Greek deal euphoria wanes
 
* Euro's surge fizzles out on doubts about implementation

* Stops above $1.3300 still intact

* Dollar/yen hovering near 6-1/2 mth highs

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Relief gains for the euro after Greece's overnight rescue deal proved short-lived on Tuesday, with investors looking to sell into any bounce on doubts that Athens' debt burden is any more manageable.

With most of the good news priced in for the moment, traders said chances that the euro will rise above a key resistance level of around $1.3307 were small. Still, with many speculators already running bearish positions a sharp drop was unlikely.

The euro was 0.1 percent lower at $1.3225, coming under pressure early in the European session on selling by Middle- Eastern investors and pulling back from a session high of $1.3293 reached after the success of the talks overnight.

A bunch of automatic buy orders to limit losses above $1.3300 were intact, with near-term resistance at its 100-day moving average of $1.3307. On the downside, bids were cited at $1.3220 and around $1.3200, with stops below the session low at $1.3185.

"It has been a relief rally for the euro, but there are so many caveats, so many risks to implementation," said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC World Markets.

"One hurdle has been cleared, but many more left to be cleared and for now it looks like the euro will trade below that 100-day moving average."

After a marathon session of talks, euro zone finance ministers sealed a 130-billion euro deal and finalised measures to cut Greece's debt to 120.5 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. But the measures are unpopular among the Greeks and may create social unrest in a country that is due to hold an election in April.

Also, every government in the currency union will also have to approve the package. Given Greece is in a deep recession, the tough measures also only compound its broader economic woes and the country could still need more funds to cut its debt.

Overall, analysts were worried that Europe still faces an uphill battle to deal with economic problems which are expected to drive the euro zone into recession early this year. That stands in contrast to the U.S. economy, which has regained some strength in recent months.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley said further upside in the euro was limited and a rebound would be an opportunity to investors to re-establish short euro positions.

Their FX positioning tracker suggested short euro positions had been significantly reduced in the past few weeks, leaving scope for fresh bearish strategies to be put in place.

YEN AT MULTI-MONTH LOWS

Relief at the approval of the Greek deal saw the euro hit a fresh three-month high against the yen. It was last up 0.2 percent at 105.62 yen, pulling back from that high of 106.01 yen struck on trading platform EBS.

The yen hovered near multi-month lows against most other major currencies as last week's surprise easing by the Bank of Japan prompted speculators to step up selling of the yen.

The BOJ's decision to do more quantitative easing has led UBS analysts to revise their dollar/yen forecasts upwards.

"Our end-year forecast of 80 yen has almost been hit already," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, strategist at UBS. "The risks are now to the upside to this forecast with dollar/yen likely to trade in a 75-85 range in future compared to 75-80 previously."

The dollar last fetched 79.80 yen, not far from a 6 1/2-month high of 79.89 yen hit on Monday.

But the U.S. currency faces strong resistance from a cloud on weekly Ichimoku charts, which it has not managed to stay above for any sustained period since mid-2007. The bottom of the cloud stands at 79.73 while the top is at 80.94 this week.

The dollar index was last down 0.3 percent at 79.080.

Meanwhile, the growth-linked Australian dollar fell 0.8 percent to $1.0680 as European stocks took a hit and appetite for higher-yielding currencies took a breather.

It extended losses after minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Feb. 7 meeting were initially perceived as dovish, though they showed board members merely reiterated that a benign inflation outlook meant it could cut rates if necessary. (Editing by Stephen Nisbet)
Source