BLBG:Australian Dollar Advances Against Yen on U.S. Outlook
The Australian dollar advanced against the yen before U.S. data that may show consumer confidence held near a one-year high, buoying demand for assets linked to global growth.
The Australian and New Zealand currencies have climbed this year against the greenback as shares and commodity prices have advanced on signs of improvement in the U.S. economy and as concern eased that Europe’s debt crisis would damp growth. Gains in both South Pacific currencies were limited amid speculation China, the world’s second-largest economy, will slow.
“U.S. economic indicators are good,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides currency margin-trading services. “What’s supporting the Australian and New Zealand dollars are commodity prices that remain elevated.”
Australia’s dollar, known as the Aussie, climbed 0.2 percent to 86.37 yen as of 4:25 p.m. in Sydney. It bought $1.0443 from $1.0467. New Zealand’s currency advanced 0.1 percent to 67.43 yen. It fetched 81.53 U.S. cents after rising 1.1 percent to 81.82 on March 23.
The Aussie has advanced 2.3 percent this year against the greenback, while the New Zealand dollar has gained 4.9 percent. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index (SPGSCITR) for commodities has risen 8 percent during the period, while the MSCI All Country World Index (MXWD) of stocks has climbed 11 percent.
U.S. Confidence
The Conference Board’s gauge of U.S. consumer confidence is forecast to be 70 this month after reaching a one-year high of 70.8 in February, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The figure is due tomorrow.
Durable goods orders in the U.S. probably rose 3 percent in February from the prior month, when they fell 3.7 percent, a separate poll of economists showed before the Commerce Department releases the data on March 28.
New Zealand’s exports exceeded imports in February by NZ$161 million ($131 million), compared with a revised NZ$159 million deficit in January, the statistics bureau said today. Economists had estimated a NZ$153 million surplus.
Futures traders decreased bets the Australian dollar will climb against the U.S. currency, data from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Aussie compared with those on a drop was 45,191 on March 20, down 32 percent from a week earlier and the lowest level since Dec. 27.
China Concern
Data from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed on March 22 that a Chinese purchasing managers index for manufacturing was at 48.1 this month, according to a preliminary reading. That compares with a final reading of 49.6 in February and is below the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. China’s statistics bureau and logistics federation are scheduled to release their purchasing managers’ index on April 1.
“There have been renewed concerns about China cooling,” weighing on the Australian and New Zealand currencies, said Jonathan Cavenagh, a Singapore-based currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. (WBC), Australia’s second-biggest lender. “Those fears were accentuated again last week when we had that weaker flash PMI reading out of China.”
China is Australia’s largest overseas market and New Zealand’s second-largest export destination after Australia.
Yields on Australia’s three-year government bonds were little changed at 3.68 percent. Two-year interest-rate swaps in New Zealand, which exchange a fixed rate for a floating one, gained to 3.08 percent from 3.06 percent.
To contact the reporter on this story: Masaki Kondo in Singapore at mkondo3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net
