(Reuters) - Global average nickel prices this year will be slightly less than $20,000 per metric ton, which is almost equal to the average level for the first quarter, Norilsk Nickel's head of marketing Viktor Sprogis said at the Reuters Mining and Metals Summit. "There is no reason to believe that the average price will go below these average levels significantly," he said at the summit, held at the Reuters office in Moscow on Thursday. The Arctic miner, the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium, added that at current prices below $18,000 per metric ton some 5 percent of global production is unprofitable. About 8 percent of global capacity is at risk, said Sprogis. "Our operations in Australia and Africa are profitable but are at risk, too. Production in Russia is far from risk areas," he said. Benchmark nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have fallen 6.6 percent since the beginning of the year and fetched $17,474 per metric ton at 1244 GMT on Thursday. Nickel, a stainless steel component, and lead, which is down 3 percent on the quarter, are on track to become the biggest losers on the London Metals Exchange (LME) for the first quarter. Nick Moore, an analyst at RBS, said on Thursday he expects a 50,000 metric ton surplus in 2012 after LME inventories of nickel rose sharply to stand at eight-week's worth of consumption. The global nickel market had a supply surplus of 17,000 metric ton last year, the Lisbon-based International Nickel Study Group (INSG) believes. Sprogis said he expected the level of nickel premiums on the spot market to decline by 20-25 percent in 2012 from 2011 level. Norilsk, controlled by mining tycoon Vladimir Potanin's Interros consortium, is responsible for about 20 percent of world nickel output and about 2 percent of copper, but is hoping to increase its share of the copper market. Norilsk expects the average copper prices in 2012 to amount to about 8,000 per metric ton. Three-month copper on the London Metals Exchange was trading at around $8,330 per metric ton. Current premiums for copper products, which are not traded on LME and make up the vast bulk of Norilsk's exports, are lower than those for LME-traded copper. This year Norilsk expects to decide on potential investments into technology changes required to list its cathode copper on the LME, but Sprogis said he saw no serious reason to do it now. Sprogis saw average palladium prices in 2012 around $780 per ounce, while platinum will reach about $1,600 per ounce, despite a surplus of production on the market. "Nobody would invest in the development of new production of platinum group metals at current (price) levels. There are reasons to believe that the prices will grow significantly by the end of the year." "Consumption is increasing ... Demand for our palladium exceeds our production volumes," he added. Follow Reuters Summits on Twitter @Reuters_Summits

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