ET:Copper falls as dollar rises, US stimulus hopes wane
LONDON: Copper fell for a second day on Wednesday, retreating from near two-month highs, as the dollar rose and disappointment over the US Federal Reserve's retreat from another round of monetary stimulus seeped through financial markets.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.4 per cent to $8,491 a tonne by 0926 GMT from $8,615 at the close on Tuesday.
"It's clearly largely in response to the minutes of the FOMC meeting yesterday which doesn't take QE (quantitative easing) off the table completely but it's become less probable," BHP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs said.
Overnight minutes from the Fed's March meet showed less support for more easing, or bond-buying, in the face of improved economic data, which lifted the dollar and hit stocks in the United States, Asia and Europe.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced commodities like copper more expensive for holders of other currencies.
But Briggs said the copper price remained solid. The metal, used in construction and seen as an economic bellwether, is up more than 11 per cent so far this year and remains well above the 200-day moving average of $8,318.
Copper was also underpinned by the central bank of Chile, the world's largest copper producer, raising its forecast for this year's copper export price to $3.70 per pound from the $3.50 forecast in December.
There was more evidence of a gradually recovering US economy on Tuesday as data showed new orders for US factory goods bounced back 1.3 per cent in February, although a little off market expectations.
Analysts expect the momentum to be sustained, seeing a fourth month of solid job growth in the United States in March when the nonfarm payrolls data is released on Friday.
LME trading volumes were thin in a holiday shortened week. Chinese markets stayed shut for a public holiday, and markets in many Western countries will be shut on Friday for the Easter weekend.
WILL THEY, WON'T THEY?
Three-month nickel, a big gainer on Tuesday on the back of renewed Indonesian export tax concerns, was the biggest loser on Wednesday, falling 2.9 per cent to $17,912 from $18,450 at the close on Tuesday.
"The "will they, won't they" conundrum of an Indonesian export tax on unprocessed minerals reared its head again on Tuesday, having been put on hold last week," Macquarie said in a research note.
"The situation is undoubtedly confusing, and we consider the imposition of the tax a low to moderate possibility, but undoubtedly the market risk is rising."
An Indonesian industry ministry official said on Tuesday the country plans to impose a 25 per cent export tax on coal and base metals this year, jumping to 50 per cent in 2013, as it looks to boost domestic investment and take a bigger slice of mining profits.
Tin was down 1.4 per cent at $22,700 from $23,025 at the close on Tuesday, zinc was down 1.2 per cent at $1,995.75 f rom $2,020.
Lead was down 2.2 per cent at $2,024 from $2,070 and aluminium was off 0.8 per cent at $2,108 from $2,125.