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WSJ:WORLD FOREX: Aussie Dollar Sags, Euro Stable Before US Jobs Data
 
-- Euro in holding pattern with dollar amid ECB, Fed policy uncertainty

-- Caution descends ahead of U.S. jobs data, French and Greek elections, U.K. holiday

-- Weak Indian rupee stabilizes after suspected central bank intervention


By William Kemble-Diaz
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro was steady in European hours Friday as currency traders absorbed more evidence of a European economic slowdown but held off from betting aggressively ahead of U.S. jobs data, elections in France and Greece, and an extended weekend in London.

The Australian dollar extended its losses from Asian trading and got close to its four-month lows against the buck after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its growth and inflation forecasts.

Data showed private sector economic activity in the euro-zone declined at a faster pace than expected in April, indicating that the contraction seen in the final three months of 2011 is stretching into the second quarter of 2012 as government cutbacks bite.

But with the European Central Bank's President Mario Draghi pointedly offering no hints Thursday that he was contemplating more policy easing and the market unsure about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will engage in a third round of U.S. quantitative easing, the euro and dollar remained locked in a tight trading range.

"The European and U.S. policy debate is in limbo," said Daragh Maher, a currency strategist at HSBC Holdings PLC in London. "That's translating into a euro that is struggling for direction against the dollar," he said.

By 1047 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3132, well inside the four-cent range that has prevailed since the beginning of March, compared with $1.3152 in late New York hours Thursday.

In contrast, policy has become a more important driver for the pound and Australian dollar.

The Australian dollar was at $1.0243 against the buck from $1.0263 late Thursday after the RBA cut its forecast for economic growth in the current fiscal year to 2.75% from 3.5%, having slashed interest rates by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point earlier in the week.

Still to come is the monthly U.S. non-farm payrolls report at 1230 GMT. The consensus forecast is that it will show that 168,000 new jobs were added last month.

Maher said a stronger number would boost the dollar against other currencies but added that he was unconvinced about how far the euro could rally in the event of a weak number, ahead of weekend elections in France and Greece.

Saeed Amen, a currency strategist at Nomura, said a hung parliament in Greece and a win for the French opposition candidate Francois Hollande was already priced into the market, but expected choppy trading conditions later in the day as traders lifted their bets ahead of Monday's holiday in London, the world's biggest foreign-exchange dealing hub.

"We could see some whippy price action after non-farm payrolls as people take off positions because they don't want the risk going into the weekend," he said.

The Turkish lira was firmer after Turkey's central bank signalled its determination to get on top of high inflation, while the Indian rupee bounced off a near-five month low against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of India intervened in the market to support the currency, according to traders.

At 1047 GMT, the dollar was at Y80.240 against the yen, compared with Y80.187 in late New York hours Thursday, while the euro was at Y105.35 compared with Y105.65, according to trading system EBS. The pound was trading at $1.6182 against the dollar, compared with $1.6178 late Thursday in New York.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was trading at 79.304, compared with 79.205 late Thursday in New York.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:


Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 1033 GMT 1.3123 80.24 1.6179 0.9154
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bullish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bullish Range
200 day ma 1.3388 79.71 1.5866 0.9084
3rd Resistance 1.3207 80.55 1.6302 0.9210
2nd Resistance 1.3190 80.39 1.6246 0.9174
1st Resistance 1.3162 80.28 1.6216 0.9160
Pivot* 1.3143 80.28 1.6185 0.9142
1st Support 1.3115 80.11 1.6161 0.9115
2nd Support 1.3095 80.05 1.6135 0.9082
3rd Support 1.3057 79.72 1.6062 0.9071


Forex spot: GBP/AUD

Spot 1033 GMT 1.5803
3 Day Trend Bullish
Weekly Trend Bullish
200 day ma 1.5305
3rd Resistance 1.6275
2nd Resistance 1.6057
1st Resistance 1.5984
Pivot* 1.5744
1st Support 1.5765
2nd Support 1.5725
3rd Support 1.5655

-By William Kemble-Diaz, Dow Jones Newswires, 44 20 7842 9347;

william.kemble-diaz@dowjones.com; @djfxtrader
Source