LONDON — Oil dropped to four-month lows below $113 a barrel on Monday, on worries that election results in Europe could thwart efforts to contain the euro zone debt crisis and after weak U.S. jobs data prompted concern about oil demand growth.
Oil prices, which have fallen for four straight sessions, suffered a sell-off on Friday after data showing U.S. nonfarm hiring slowed for a second month in a row in April, fuelling fears of falling demand in the world’s top oil consumer.
This was compounded by the outcome of elections in France and Greece that raised concerns over their ability to implement further austerity measures seen as key to tackle the region’s debt crisis.
“Optimists who recently believed that most of the risks concerning the euro were already ‘priced in’ are now discovering that this is by no means the case,” said Commerzbank analysts Carsten Fritsch and Eugen Weinberg in a note.
“The results of the elections in Greece and France are evidence that voters are not willing to pay for the severe programmes of austerity measures.
“We believe that this will weigh on the euro, market sentiment and commodity prices for some time to come.”
At the end of morning trading, Brent crude futures lost 32 cents to $112.86 a barrel, after touching a low of $110.34, the weakest since late January. The benchmark contract fell 2.5 per cent on Friday.
U.S. crude futures were down 91 cents at $97.58 a barrel, after dropping to as low as $95.34, its weakest since Dec. 20, 2011. U.S. oil fell by around four per cent on Friday, its biggest drop since December, to break below $100 for the first time since February.
Brent is on track for a four-day loss of around six per cent, its biggest since August last year, while U.S. crude is headed for a decline of over 8 per cent in the same period, the largest such drop in over six months.
Although still in the red, oil prices pared some losses after plumbing earlier intra-day lows, with investors noting the recent sell-off has sparked buying interest from bargain-hunters.
Petromatrix’s Olivier Jakob said that following last week’s “severe correction” it was normal to see investors buying at the bottom of the market.
The weekend elections in Europe continued to provide focus, with French voters ousting Nicolas Sarkozy, an architect of bailouts for indebted countries and an advocate of austerity measures.
“In France, the victory of Socialist candidate (François) Hollande will be closely watched by markets in particular, following his announcements of a turning away from austerity policies throughout his election campaign,” JBC Energy consultants said in a note.
“Expectations on the outcome of the elections might have already contributed to the downward slide in oil prices late last week,” the JBC analysts added, “as concerns about the eurozone’s willingness to carry out full-hearted austerity measures lingered.”
In Greece, consensus-building appeared challenging after the leader of the Democratic Left party Fotis Kouvelis, which secured 6.1 per cent of the votes on Sunday’s election, refused to join any pro-bailout coalition of the conservative New Democracy and Socialist PASOK parties.
Greek voters turned against the traditional parties at the urns as they protest against troika-sanctioned austerity measures, key to securing the country’s financial future within the euro zone.
The election outcome in the euro zone saw some investors turning risk-averse. The U.S. dollar gained around 0.3 per cent against a basket of currencies on Monday, weighing on dollar-denominated assets like oil and gold.
SUPPLY FEARS EASE
Higher supply from the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which is pumping 32.3 million barrels per day (bpd) — 2.3 million bpd more than OPEC’s target of 30 million bpd, also weighed on oil prices.
The extra OPEC oil has offset a decline in exports from Iran, which is facing stiffening Western sanctions over its disputed nuclear energy programme.
“We maintain that the path of least resistance for oil is down, especially as bearish catalysts continue to emerge,” said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a report on Monday. “Lacklustre macroeconomic conditions, easing global tensions and bearish fundamentals have already started to weigh on oil prices.”
Brent is now lower than it was in early November, when a U.N. report on Iran’s nuclear programme stirred new action against Tehran.
“Iran remains a risk, but risks may be abating,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote.
Iran and major powers resumed talks in mid-April in Istanbul after a gap of more than a year, during which time the United States and European Union stepped up efforts to curb Tehran’s nuclear ambitions through new sanctions and an oil embargo which come into effect over the summer. They are to meet again on May 23 in Baghdad.
